Nacional vs Estrela result and stats
Win probability: home 48%, draw 26%, away 26%
Match report
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersNacional beat Estrela 2–0 at home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 4 April 2026. This match was played before GossipBall launched. In a retrospective test using only results available before kick-off, GossipBall's ratings gave Nacional 48%, the draw 26% and Estrela 26%, so a home win had a 48% chance. The favourite result came in.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 30 October 2026, 05:56 UTC
Match stats
NAES
16Shots11
4On target2
5Corners6
14Fouls8
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals0
Recent form
Nacional
L @ Famalicão0–1 · 21 Mar
L v Estoril0–1 · 15 Mar
D @ Moreirense1–1 · 7 Mar
L v Sp Braga1–2 · 28 Feb
L @ Arouca0–3 · 21 Feb
Estrela
W v Casa Pia4–0 · 20 Mar
L @ Rio Ave1–2 · 15 Mar
D v Gil Vicente2–2 · 8 Mar
D @ AVS0–0 · 28 Feb
L v Tondela0–2 · 20 Feb
Head to head
In 3 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 0, Estrela won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 9 Nov 2025, was a 1–1 draw.
Estrela 1–1 Nacional9 Nov 2025
Nacional 0–1 Estrela6 Apr 2025
Estrela 2–0 Nacional10 Nov 2024