Primeira LigaMatchday 11Saturday 7 November 2026 · 18:00

Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction

Alverca

49%

home win

likeliest score

1–0

13.0% chance

25%

draw

Casa Pia

25%

away win

Win probability: home 49%, draw 25%, away 25%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Alverca favourites to beat Casa Pia at home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It gives Alverca a 49% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Casa Pia 25%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Alverca and 1.0 from Casa Pia, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 45% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–0 (13%). Alverca keep a clean sheet in 38% of outcomes, Casa Pia in 23%.

Alverca are 8th in the table with 11 points from 9 games; Casa Pia are 16th with 7. In their last five league games Alverca took 9 points (LWWWL) and Casa Pia took 7 (DLWLW). This season Alverca average 1.45 expected goals (xG) for and 1.62 against per game; Casa Pia average 0.83 for and 1.63 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia, a win for Alverca.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Alverca goalsColumns: Casa Pia goals

1–013.0%

1–112.0%

2–09.4%

2–19.2%

0–18.6%

0–08.2%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

70%

3 or more goals

45%

4 or more goals

23%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

48%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.49 for Alverca and 0.97 for Casa Pia.

Winning margin

Explained

Alverca by 3

Alverca by 2

15%

Alverca by 1

25%

Draw

25%

Casa Pia by 3

Casa Pia by 2

Casa Pia by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Alverca expected goals1.49

Casa Pia expected goals0.97

Alverca keep a clean sheet38%

Casa Pia keep a clean sheet23%

Alverca win without conceding30%

Casa Pia win without conceding14%

Alverca score 2 or more44%

Casa Pia score 2 or more26%

Recent form

Alverca

L v Arouca0–1 · 24 Oct

W @ Famalicão4–1 · 12 Oct

W v Rio Ave1–0 · 19 Sep

W @ Nacional3–1 · 12 Sep

L v Sp Braga1–2 · 5 Sep

Casa Pia

W @ Estrela2–0 · 24 Oct

L v Santa Clara0–1 · 10 Oct

W @ Estoril2–1 · 20 Sep

L v Porto1–4 · 12 Sep

D @ Vitória SC0–0 · 6 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia, a win for Alverca.

Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia12 Apr 2026

Casa Pia 0–2 Alverca29 Nov 2025

Season averages per game

ALCP

1.44

Goals

0.56

1.44

Conceded

1.89

1.45

0.83

1.62

xG against

1.63

11.9

Shots

9.7

3.8

On target

2.8

4.6

Corners

4.1

2.11

Yellow cards

2.22

11%

Clean sheets

22%

67%

Both score

22%

56%

3+ goals

33%

Questions and answers

Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?

GossipBall gives Alverca a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Casa Pia 25%. GossipBall makes Alverca favourites to beat Casa Pia at home.

What is the most likely score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

The likeliest single score is 1–0, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Alverca and Casa Pia score.

Will there be three or more goals in Alverca vs Casa Pia?

There is a 45% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.5 for Alverca, 1.0 for Casa Pia).

When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Casa Pia?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia, a win for Alverca.