Alverca vs Estrela result and stats
Win probability: home 46%, draw 26%, away 27%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersAlverca and Estrela drew 2–2 in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 15 August 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Alverca 46%, the draw 26% and Estrela 27%, so a draw had a 26% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Alverca 1.75, Estrela 1.29, so Alverca created the better chances. Alverca had 14 shots (4 on target) to Estrela's 10 (7 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
ALES
1.75Expected goals1.29
14Shots10
4On target7
2Corners0
10Fouls12
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0
0Half-time goals0
Recent form
Alverca
L @ Porto0–2 · 9 Aug
L @ Famalicão0–1 · 16 May
D v Estoril1–1 · 10 May
L @ Porto0–1 · 2 May
W v Arouca2–1 · 24 Apr
Estrela
D v Sporting CP2–2 · 8 Aug
D @ Sp Braga2–2 · 16 May
D v Famalicão0–0 · 11 May
L @ Moreirense2–3 · 2 May
L v Porto1–2 · 26 Apr
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 0, Estrela won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
Alverca 1–1 Estrela31 Jan 2026
Estrela 2–2 Alverca25 Aug 2025
Season averages per game
ALES
1.44Goals1.56
1.44Conceded1.89
1.45xG1.31
1.62xG against1.44
11.9Shots13.4
3.8On target4.4
4.6Corners4.6
2.11Yellow cards2.22
11%Clean sheets0%
67%Both score67%
56%3+ goals67%