Arouca vs Estrela result and stats
Win probability: home 54%, draw 23%, away 24%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersArouca beat Estrela 1–0 at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Arouca 54%, the draw 23% and Estrela 24%, so a home win had a 54% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Arouca 0.74, Estrela 1.45, so Estrela created the better chances. Arouca had 7 shots (3 on target) to Estrela's 11 (2 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
ARES
0.74Expected goals1.45
7Shots11
3On target2
5Corners6
10Fouls7
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals0
Recent form
Arouca
D @ Sporting CP2–2 · 19 Sep
L v Santa Clara1–2 · 13 Sep
D @ Estoril0–0 · 7 Sep
W v Maritimo2–1 · 29 Aug
L @ Porto0–2 · 23 Aug
Estrela
L v Academico Viseu0–2 · 20 Sep
D @ Rio Ave3–3 · 14 Sep
W v Sp Braga2–1 · 10 Sep
D v Famalicão2–2 · 5 Sep
W @ Nacional3–2 · 30 Aug
Head to head
In 6 league meetings since 2023, Arouca won 3, Estrela won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Arouca 1–0 Estrela, a win for Arouca.
Arouca 1–0 Estrela19 Apr 2026
Estrela 3–1 Arouca7 Dec 2025
Arouca 1–0 Estrela19 Apr 2025
Estrela 2–1 Arouca9 Dec 2024
Arouca 0–0 Estrela5 May 2024
Estrela 1–4 Arouca28 Dec 2023
Season averages per game
ARES
1.33Goals1.56
0.78Conceded1.89
1.28xG1.31
1.28xG against1.44
11.1Shots13.4
3.8On target4.4
3.1Corners4.6
2.89Yellow cards2.22
56%Clean sheets0%
33%Both score67%
44%3+ goals67%