Primeira LigaMatchday 10Monday 2 November 2026 · 20:15

Benfica vs Alverca prediction

Benfica

81%

home win

likeliest score

2–0

12.2% chance

12%

draw

Alverca

away win

Win probability: home 81%, draw 12%, away 7%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Alverca at home in the Primeira Liga on Monday 2 November 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It gives Benfica a 81% chance of winning, puts the draw at 12% and gives Alverca 7%.

GossipBall expects 2.8 goals from Benfica and 0.7 from Alverca, so goals look likely: there is a 67% chance of three or more goals and a 46% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 2–0 (12%). Benfica keep a clean sheet in 51% of outcomes, Alverca in 6%.

Benfica are 2nd in the table with 22 points from 9 games; Alverca are 8th with 11. In their last five league games Benfica took 12 points (WWLWW) and Alverca took 9 (LWWWL). This season Benfica average 2.31 expected goals (xG) for and 0.73 against per game; Alverca average 1.45 for and 1.62 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Benfica won 2, Alverca won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Benfica 2–1 Alverca, a win for Benfica.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Benfica goalsColumns: Alverca goals

2–012.2%

3–011.3%

1–08.9%

2–18.2%

4–07.9%

3–17.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

97%

2 or more goals

86%

3 or more goals

67%

4 or more goals

45%

5 or more goals

27%

Both teams score

46%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.5 goals in total: 2.79 for Benfica and 0.68 for Alverca.

Winning margin

Explained

Benfica by 3

18%

Benfica by 2

22%

Benfica by 1

20%

Draw

12%

Alverca by 3

Alverca by 2

Alverca by 1

Each team's goals

Explained

Benfica expected goals2.79

Alverca expected goals0.68

Benfica keep a clean sheet51%

Alverca keep a clean sheet6%

Benfica win without conceding48%

Alverca win without conceding3%

Benfica score 2 or more77%

Alverca score 2 or more15%

Recent form

Benfica

W @ Santa Clara2–1 · 26 Oct

W v Vitória SC2–0 · 11 Oct

L @ Porto1–3 · 20 Sep

W v Gil Vicente3–1 · 13 Sep

W @ Moreirense4–0 · 9 Sep

Alverca

L v Arouca0–1 · 24 Oct

W @ Famalicão4–1 · 12 Oct

W v Rio Ave1–0 · 19 Sep

W @ Nacional3–1 · 12 Sep

L v Sp Braga1–2 · 5 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Benfica won 2, Alverca won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Benfica 2–1 Alverca, a win for Benfica.

Benfica 2–1 Alverca8 Feb 2026

Alverca 1–2 Benfica31 Aug 2025

Season averages per game

BEAL

2.89

Goals

1.44

0.89

Conceded

1.44

2.31

1.45

0.73

xG against

1.62

19.2

Shots

11.9

6.4

On target

3.8

7.2

Corners

4.6

2.11

Yellow cards

2.11

44%

Clean sheets

11%

56%

Both score

67%

89%

3+ goals

56%

Questions and answers

Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?

GossipBall gives Benfica a 81% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Alverca 7%. GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Alverca at home.

What is the most likely score in Benfica vs Alverca?

The likeliest single score is 2–0, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?

GossipBall gives a 46% chance that both Benfica and Alverca score.

Will there be three or more goals in Benfica vs Alverca?

There is a 67% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total (2.8 for Benfica, 0.7 for Alverca).

When is Benfica vs Alverca?

Kick-off is Monday 2 November 2026 at 20:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Alverca?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Benfica won 2, Alverca won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Benfica 2–1 Alverca, a win for Benfica.