Primeira LigaMatchday 10Friday 30 October 2026 · 20:15

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction

Casa Pia

home win

likeliest score

0–2

12.7% chance

14%

draw

Sporting CP

77%

away win

Win probability: home 8%, draw 14%, away 77%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Sporting CP clear favourites to beat Casa Pia away from home in the Primeira Liga on Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It gives Casa Pia a 8% chance of winning, puts the draw at 14% and gives Sporting CP 77%.

GossipBall expects 0.7 goals from Casa Pia and 2.5 from Sporting CP, so goals look likely: there is a 63% chance of three or more goals and a 46% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–2 (13%). Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 8% of outcomes, Sporting CP in 50%.

Casa Pia are 16th in the table with 7 points from 9 games; Sporting CP are 3rd with 18. In their last five league games Casa Pia took 7 points (DLWLW) and Sporting CP took 8 (WDDWL). This season Casa Pia average 0.83 expected goals (xG) for and 1.63 against per game; Sporting CP average 1.92 for and 0.87 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Casa Pia won 0, Sporting CP won 8 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 16 Jan 2026, finished Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia, a win for Sporting CP.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Casa Pia goalsColumns: Sporting CP goals

0–212.7%

0–310.7%

0–110.2%

1–28.8%

1–37.5%

1–16.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

96%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

63%

4 or more goals

40%

5 or more goals

22%

Both teams score

46%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 0.70 for Casa Pia and 2.53 for Sporting CP.

Winning margin

Explained

Casa Pia by 3

Casa Pia by 2

Casa Pia by 1

Draw

14%

Sporting CP by 3

16%

Sporting CP by 2

22%

Sporting CP by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

Casa Pia expected goals0.70

Sporting CP expected goals2.53

Casa Pia keep a clean sheet8%

Sporting CP keep a clean sheet50%

Casa Pia win without conceding4%

Sporting CP win without conceding46%

Casa Pia score 2 or more15%

Sporting CP score 2 or more72%

Recent form

Casa Pia

W @ Estrela2–0 · 24 Oct

L v Santa Clara0–1 · 10 Oct

W @ Estoril2–1 · 20 Sep

L v Porto1–4 · 12 Sep

D @ Vitória SC0–0 · 6 Sep

Sporting CP

L v Academico Viseu1–2 · 25 Oct

W @ Sp Braga3–1 · 9 Oct

D v Arouca2–2 · 19 Sep

D @ Famalicão1–1 · 13 Sep

W v Nacional2–0 · 5 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Casa Pia won 0, Sporting CP won 8 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 16 Jan 2026, finished Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia, a win for Sporting CP.

Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia16 Jan 2026

Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP8 Aug 2025

Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting CP9 Mar 2025

Sporting CP 2–0 Casa Pia5 Oct 2024

Sporting CP 8–0 Casa Pia29 Jan 2024

Casa Pia 1–2 Sporting CP18 Aug 2023

Season averages per game

CPSC

0.56

Goals

2.33

1.89

Conceded

1.22

0.83

1.92

1.63

xG against

0.87

9.7

Shots

14.6

2.8

On target

5.3

4.1

Corners

5.2

2.22

Yellow cards

2.33

22%

Clean sheets

22%

Both score

78%

33%

3+ goals

78%

Questions and answers

Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

GossipBall gives Casa Pia a 8% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Sporting CP 77%. GossipBall makes Sporting CP clear favourites to beat Casa Pia away from home.

What is the most likely score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

The likeliest single score is 0–2, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 0–3 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

GossipBall gives a 46% chance that both Casa Pia and Sporting CP score.

Will there be three or more goals in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

There is a 63% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (0.7 for Casa Pia, 2.5 for Sporting CP).

When is Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Kick-off is Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Sporting CP?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Casa Pia won 0, Sporting CP won 8 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 16 Jan 2026, finished Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia, a win for Sporting CP.