Primeira LigaMatchday 11Sunday 8 November 2026 · 15:30

Estoril vs Maritimo prediction

Estoril

54%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.4% chance

22%

draw

Maritimo

23%

away win

Win probability: home 54%, draw 22%, away 23%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Estoril favourites to beat Maritimo at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It gives Estoril a 54% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Maritimo 23%.

GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Estoril and 1.1 from Maritimo, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 56% chance of three or more goals and a 56% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). Estoril keep a clean sheet in 33% of outcomes, Maritimo in 16%.

Estoril are 18th in the table with 2 points from 9 games; Maritimo are 14th with 8. In their last five league games Estoril took 1 points (DLLLL) and Maritimo took 1 (LLDLL). This season Estoril average 1.06 expected goals (xG) for and 1.49 against per game; Maritimo average 0.81 for and 1.46 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 2, Maritimo won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 27 May 2023, finished Estoril 3–1 Maritimo, a win for Estoril.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Estoril goalsColumns: Maritimo goals

1–110.4%

1–09.9%

2–19.8%

2–08.8%

0–16.2%

3–16.0%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

79%

3 or more goals

56%

4 or more goals

34%

5 or more goals

18%

Both teams score

56%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.9 goals in total: 1.83 for Estoril and 1.11 for Maritimo.

Winning margin

Explained

Estoril by 3

Estoril by 2

17%

Estoril by 1

24%

Draw

22%

Maritimo by 3

Maritimo by 2

Maritimo by 1

15%

Each team's goals

Explained

Estoril expected goals1.83

Maritimo expected goals1.11

Estoril keep a clean sheet33%

Maritimo keep a clean sheet16%

Estoril win without conceding28%

Maritimo win without conceding11%

Estoril score 2 or more55%

Maritimo score 2 or more31%

Recent form

Estoril

L v Moreirense1–3 · 25 Oct

L @ Academico Viseu1–2 · 10 Oct

L v Casa Pia1–2 · 20 Sep

L @ Sp Braga0–1 · 14 Sep

D v Arouca0–0 · 7 Sep

Maritimo

L @ Vitória SC0–5 · 23 Oct

L v Porto1–2 · 10 Oct

D @ Gil Vicente1–1 · 19 Sep

L @ Moreirense1–3 · 14 Sep

L v Benfica0–3 · 5 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 2, Maritimo won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 27 May 2023, finished Estoril 3–1 Maritimo, a win for Estoril.

Estoril 3–1 Maritimo27 May 2023

Maritimo 1–0 Estoril22 Jan 2023

Maritimo 0–0 Estoril5 Feb 2022

Estoril 2–1 Maritimo27 Aug 2021

Season averages per game

ESMA

0.56

Goals

1.00

1.67

Conceded

2.11

1.06

0.81

1.49

xG against

1.46

14.4

Shots

10.0

5.2

On target

3.1

5.0

Corners

3.1

2.44

Yellow cards

1.89

11%

Clean sheets

11%

56%

Both score

67%

44%

3+ goals

78%

Questions and answers

Who will win Estoril vs Maritimo?

GossipBall gives Estoril a 54% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Maritimo 23%. GossipBall makes Estoril favourites to beat Maritimo at home.

What is the most likely score in Estoril vs Maritimo?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Maritimo?

GossipBall gives a 56% chance that both Estoril and Maritimo score.

Will there be three or more goals in Estoril vs Maritimo?

There is a 56% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (1.8 for Estoril, 1.1 for Maritimo).

When is Estoril vs Maritimo?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Maritimo?

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 2, Maritimo won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 27 May 2023, finished Estoril 3–1 Maritimo, a win for Estoril.