Primeira LigaMatchday 11Sunday 8 November 2026 · 20:30

Estrela vs Benfica prediction

Estrela

home win

likeliest score

0–2

12.4% chance

15%

draw

Benfica

76%

away win

Win probability: home 9%, draw 15%, away 76%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Estrela away from home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It gives Estrela a 9% chance of winning, puts the draw at 15% and gives Benfica 76%.

GossipBall expects 0.7 goals from Estrela and 2.5 from Benfica, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 47% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–2 (12%). Estrela keep a clean sheet in 8% of outcomes, Benfica in 48%.

Estrela are 12th in the table with 10 points from 9 games; Benfica are 2nd with 22. In their last five league games Estrela took 4 points (WDLLL) and Benfica took 12 (WWLWW). This season Estrela average 1.31 expected goals (xG) for and 1.44 against per game; Benfica average 2.31 for and 0.73 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Estrela won 0, Benfica won 6 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Benfica 4–0 Estrela, a win for Benfica.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Estrela goalsColumns: Benfica goals

0–212.4%

0–310.3%

0–110.2%

1–29.1%

1–37.5%

1–17.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

96%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

62%

4 or more goals

40%

5 or more goals

22%

Both teams score

47%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 0.73 for Estrela and 2.48 for Benfica.

Winning margin

Explained

Estrela by 3

Estrela by 2

Estrela by 1

Draw

15%

Benfica by 3

16%

Benfica by 2

22%

Benfica by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

Estrela expected goals0.73

Benfica expected goals2.48

Estrela keep a clean sheet8%

Benfica keep a clean sheet48%

Estrela win without conceding5%

Benfica win without conceding44%

Estrela score 2 or more17%

Benfica score 2 or more71%

Recent form

Estrela

L v Casa Pia0–2 · 24 Oct

L @ Arouca0–1 · 11 Oct

L v Academico Viseu0–2 · 20 Sep

D @ Rio Ave3–3 · 14 Sep

W v Sp Braga2–1 · 10 Sep

Benfica

W @ Santa Clara2–1 · 26 Oct

W v Vitória SC2–0 · 11 Oct

L @ Porto1–3 · 20 Sep

W v Gil Vicente3–1 · 13 Sep

W @ Moreirense4–0 · 9 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Estrela won 0, Benfica won 6 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Benfica 4–0 Estrela, a win for Benfica.

Benfica 4–0 Estrela25 Jan 2026

Estrela 0–1 Benfica16 Aug 2025

Estrela 2–3 Benfica2 Feb 2025

Benfica 1–0 Estrela24 Aug 2024

Estrela 1–4 Benfica29 Jan 2024

Benfica 2–0 Estrela19 Aug 2023

Season averages per game

ESBE

1.56

Goals

2.89

1.89

Conceded

0.89

1.31

2.31

1.44

xG against

0.73

13.4

Shots

19.2

4.4

On target

6.4

4.6

Corners

7.2

2.22

Yellow cards

2.11

Clean sheets

44%

67%

Both score

56%

67%

3+ goals

89%

Questions and answers

Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?

GossipBall gives Estrela a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Benfica 76%. GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Estrela away from home.

What is the most likely score in Estrela vs Benfica?

The likeliest single score is 0–2, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 0–3 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?

GossipBall gives a 47% chance that both Estrela and Benfica score.

Will there be three or more goals in Estrela vs Benfica?

There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (0.7 for Estrela, 2.5 for Benfica).

When is Estrela vs Benfica?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Estrela won 0, Benfica won 6 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Benfica 4–0 Estrela, a win for Benfica.