Primeira LigaMatchday 11Friday 6 November 2026 · 20:45

Famalicão vs Arouca prediction

Famalicão

49%

home win

likeliest score

1–0

12.6% chance

25%

draw

Arouca

26%

away win

Win probability: home 49%, draw 25%, away 26%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Famalicão favourites to beat Arouca at home in the Primeira Liga on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:45 UTC. It gives Famalicão a 49% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Arouca 26%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Famalicão and 1.0 from Arouca, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 46% chance of three or more goals and a 49% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–0 (13%). Famalicão keep a clean sheet in 37% of outcomes, Arouca in 22%.

Famalicão are 11th in the table with 10 points from 9 games; Arouca are 5th with 17. In their last five league games Famalicão took 8 points (DDWLW) and Arouca took 8 (DLDWW). This season Famalicão average 1.00 expected goals (xG) for and 1.38 against per game; Arouca average 1.28 for and 1.28 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Famalicão won 3, Arouca won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 6 Mar 2026, finished Famalicão 1–0 Arouca, a win for Famalicão.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Famalicão goalsColumns: Arouca goals

1–012.6%

1–112.0%

2–19.2%

2–09.2%

0–18.5%

0–07.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

71%

3 or more goals

46%

4 or more goals

24%

5 or more goals

11%

Both teams score

49%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.50 for Famalicão and 1.00 for Arouca.

Winning margin

Explained

Famalicão by 3

Famalicão by 2

15%

Famalicão by 1

24%

Draw

25%

Arouca by 3

Arouca by 2

Arouca by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Famalicão expected goals1.50

Arouca expected goals1.00

Famalicão keep a clean sheet37%

Arouca keep a clean sheet22%

Famalicão win without conceding29%

Arouca win without conceding14%

Famalicão score 2 or more44%

Arouca score 2 or more26%

Recent form

Famalicão

W @ Rio Ave4–0 · 25 Oct

L v Alverca1–4 · 12 Oct

W @ Nacional4–0 · 19 Sep

D v Sporting CP1–1 · 13 Sep

D @ Estrela2–2 · 5 Sep

Arouca

W @ Alverca1–0 · 24 Oct

W v Estrela1–0 · 11 Oct

D @ Sporting CP2–2 · 19 Sep

L v Santa Clara1–2 · 13 Sep

D @ Estoril0–0 · 7 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Famalicão won 3, Arouca won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 6 Mar 2026, finished Famalicão 1–0 Arouca, a win for Famalicão.

Famalicão 1–0 Arouca6 Mar 2026

Arouca 1–1 Famalicão5 Oct 2025

Arouca 1–2 Famalicão5 Apr 2025

Famalicão 0–0 Arouca9 Nov 2024

Arouca 3–2 Famalicão23 Feb 2024

Famalicão 1–0 Arouca22 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

FAAR

1.56

Goals

1.33

1.22

Conceded

0.78

1.00

1.28

1.38

xG against

1.28

10.2

Shots

11.1

3.4

On target

3.8

5.3

Corners

3.1

2.00

Yellow cards

2.89

33%

Clean sheets

56%

Both score

33%

56%

3+ goals

44%

Questions and answers

Who will win Famalicão vs Arouca?

GossipBall gives Famalicão a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arouca 26%. GossipBall makes Famalicão favourites to beat Arouca at home.

What is the most likely score in Famalicão vs Arouca?

The likeliest single score is 1–0, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Famalicão vs Arouca?

GossipBall gives a 49% chance that both Famalicão and Arouca score.

Will there be three or more goals in Famalicão vs Arouca?

There is a 46% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.5 for Famalicão, 1.0 for Arouca).

When is Famalicão vs Arouca?

Kick-off is Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Famalicão and Arouca?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Famalicão won 3, Arouca won 4 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 6 Mar 2026, finished Famalicão 1–0 Arouca, a win for Famalicão.