Primeira LigaMatchday 10Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:30

Moreirense vs Estrela prediction

Moreirense

46%

home win

likeliest score

1–0

12.5% chance

26%

draw

Estrela

28%

away win

Win probability: home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Moreirense favourites to beat Estrela at home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It gives Moreirense a 46% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Estrela 28%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Moreirense and 1.0 from Estrela, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 44% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–0 (13%). Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Estrela in 24%.

Moreirense are 10th in the table with 11 points from 9 games; Estrela are 12th with 10. In their last five league games Moreirense took 7 points (LWDLW) and Estrela took 4 (WDLLL). This season Moreirense average 0.79 expected goals (xG) for and 1.74 against per game; Estrela average 1.31 for and 1.44 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Moreirense won 2, Estrela won 1 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Moreirense 3–2 Estrela, a win for Moreirense.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Moreirense goalsColumns: Estrela goals

1–012.5%

1–112.3%

0–19.3%

2–18.9%

2–08.6%

0–08.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

70%

3 or more goals

44%

4 or more goals

23%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

48%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.4 goals in total: 1.41 for Moreirense and 1.04 for Estrela.

Winning margin

Explained

Moreirense by 3

Moreirense by 2

14%

Moreirense by 1

24%

Draw

26%

Estrela by 3

Estrela by 2

Estrela by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Moreirense expected goals1.41

Estrela expected goals1.04

Moreirense keep a clean sheet35%

Estrela keep a clean sheet24%

Moreirense win without conceding27%

Estrela win without conceding16%

Moreirense score 2 or more41%

Estrela score 2 or more28%

Recent form

Moreirense

W @ Estoril3–1 · 25 Oct

L v Gil Vicente0–1 · 9 Oct

D @ Vitória SC1–1 · 20 Sep

W v Maritimo3–1 · 14 Sep

L v Benfica0–4 · 9 Sep

Estrela

L v Casa Pia0–2 · 24 Oct

L @ Arouca0–1 · 11 Oct

L v Academico Viseu0–2 · 20 Sep

D @ Rio Ave3–3 · 14 Sep

W v Sp Braga2–1 · 10 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Moreirense won 2, Estrela won 1 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Moreirense 3–2 Estrela, a win for Moreirense.

Moreirense 3–2 Estrela2 May 2026

Estrela 0–0 Moreirense20 Dec 2025

Moreirense 1–1 Estrela2 Mar 2025

Estrela 2–1 Moreirense28 Sep 2024

Moreirense 2–2 Estrela7 Apr 2024

Estrela 0–1 Moreirense11 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

MOES

1.22

Goals

1.56

1.78

Conceded

1.89

0.79

1.31

1.74

xG against

1.44

8.4

Shots

13.4

2.9

On target

4.4

2.4

Corners

4.6

2.44

Yellow cards

2.22

11%

Clean sheets

56%

Both score

67%

3+ goals

67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?

GossipBall gives Moreirense a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Estrela 28%. GossipBall makes Moreirense favourites to beat Estrela at home.

What is the most likely score in Moreirense vs Estrela?

The likeliest single score is 1–0, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Estrela?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Moreirense and Estrela score.

Will there be three or more goals in Moreirense vs Estrela?

There is a 44% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.4 for Moreirense, 1.0 for Estrela).

When is Moreirense vs Estrela?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Estrela?

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Moreirense won 2, Estrela won 1 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Moreirense 3–2 Estrela, a win for Moreirense.