Primeira LigaMatchday 10Saturday 31 October 2026 · 20:30

Porto vs Estoril prediction

Porto

77%

home win

likeliest score

2–0

12.8% chance

14%

draw

Estoril

away win

Win probability: home 77%, draw 14%, away 8%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Porto clear favourites to beat Estoril at home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It gives Porto a 77% chance of winning, puts the draw at 14% and gives Estoril 8%.

GossipBall expects 2.5 goals from Porto and 0.7 from Estoril, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 46% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 2–0 (13%). Porto keep a clean sheet in 50% of outcomes, Estoril in 8%.

Porto are 1st in the table with 27 points from 9 games; Estoril are 18th with 2. In their last five league games Porto took 15 points (WWWWW) and Estoril took 1 (DLLLL). This season Porto average 2.12 expected goals (xG) for and 0.82 against per game; Estoril average 1.06 for and 1.49 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2022, Porto won 7, Estoril won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Estoril 1–3 Porto, a win for Porto.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Porto goalsColumns: Estoril goals

2–012.8%

3–010.7%

1–010.4%

2–18.9%

3–17.4%

1–16.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

96%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

62%

4 or more goals

40%

5 or more goals

22%

Both teams score

46%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 2.51 for Porto and 0.69 for Estoril.

Winning margin

Explained

Porto by 3

16%

Porto by 2

22%

Porto by 1

22%

Draw

14%

Estoril by 3

Estoril by 2

Estoril by 1

Each team's goals

Explained

Porto expected goals2.51

Estoril expected goals0.69

Porto keep a clean sheet50%

Estoril keep a clean sheet8%

Porto win without conceding46%

Estoril win without conceding4%

Porto score 2 or more71%

Estoril score 2 or more15%

Recent form

Porto

W @ Gil Vicente1–0 · 24 Oct

W @ Maritimo2–1 · 10 Oct

W v Benfica3–1 · 20 Sep

W @ Casa Pia4–1 · 12 Sep

W v Moreirense2–1 · 4 Sep

Estoril

L v Moreirense1–3 · 25 Oct

L @ Academico Viseu1–2 · 10 Oct

L v Casa Pia1–2 · 20 Sep

L @ Sp Braga0–1 · 14 Sep

D v Arouca0–0 · 7 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2022, Porto won 7, Estoril won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Estoril 1–3 Porto, a win for Porto.

Estoril 1–3 Porto12 Apr 2026

Porto 1–0 Estoril30 Nov 2025

Estoril 1–2 Porto30 Mar 2025

Porto 4–0 Estoril3 Nov 2024

Estoril 1–0 Porto30 Mar 2024

Porto 0–1 Estoril3 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

POES

2.33

Goals

0.56

0.44

Conceded

1.67

2.12

1.06

0.82

xG against

1.49

15.9

Shots

14.4

6.3

On target

5.2

6.9

Corners

5.0

1.00

Yellow cards

2.44

56%

Clean sheets

11%

44%

Both score

56%

3+ goals

44%

Questions and answers

Who will win Porto vs Estoril?

GossipBall gives Porto a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Estoril 8%. GossipBall makes Porto clear favourites to beat Estoril at home.

What is the most likely score in Porto vs Estoril?

The likeliest single score is 2–0, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Porto vs Estoril?

GossipBall gives a 46% chance that both Porto and Estoril score.

Will there be three or more goals in Porto vs Estoril?

There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (2.5 for Porto, 0.7 for Estoril).

When is Porto vs Estoril?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Porto and Estoril?

In 10 league meetings since 2022, Porto won 7, Estoril won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Estoril 1–3 Porto, a win for Porto.