Rio Ave vs Estrela result and stats
Win probability: home 42%, draw 26%, away 31%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersRio Ave and Estrela drew 3–3 in the Primeira Liga on Monday 14 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Rio Ave 42%, the draw 26% and Estrela 31%, so a draw had a 26% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Rio Ave 1.24, Estrela 1.87, so Estrela created the better chances. Rio Ave had 11 shots (6 on target) to Estrela's 20 (6 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
RAES
1.24Expected goals1.87
11Shots20
6On target6
4Corners5
16Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals1
Recent form
Rio Ave
L @ Santa Clara0–4 · 6 Sep
L v Sporting CP0–4 · 28 Aug
W @ Estoril2–0 · 22 Aug
L v Porto0–2 · 15 Aug
L @ Gil Vicente0–1 · 9 Aug
Estrela
W v Sp Braga2–1 · 10 Sep
D v Famalicão2–2 · 5 Sep
W @ Nacional3–2 · 30 Aug
D @ Alverca2–2 · 15 Aug
D v Sporting CP2–2 · 8 Aug
Head to head
In 6 league meetings since 2023, Rio Ave won 3, Estrela won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 15 Mar 2026, finished Rio Ave 2–1 Estrela, a win for Rio Ave.
Rio Ave 2–1 Estrela15 Mar 2026
Estrela 1–2 Rio Ave25 Oct 2025
Rio Ave 2–0 Estrela5 May 2025
Estrela 1–0 Rio Ave23 Dec 2024
Estrela 2–2 Rio Ave14 Apr 2024
Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela2 Dec 2023
Season averages per game
RAES
0.89Goals1.56
2.33Conceded1.89
0.68xG1.31
1.80xG against1.44
7.6Shots13.4
3.0On target4.4
3.8Corners4.6
1.67Yellow cards2.22
11%Clean sheets0%
22%Both score67%
56%3+ goals67%