Serie AMatchday 12Sunday 22 November 2026 ·

Atalanta vs Inter prediction

24%
home win
predicted score
1–2
9.7% chance
22%
draw
54%
away win
Win probability: home 24%, draw 22%, away 54%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Inter favourites to beat Atalanta away from home in Serie A on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Atalanta a 24% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Inter 54%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Atalanta and 2.0 from Inter, so goals look likely: there is a 63% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 14% of outcomes, Inter in 29%.

Atalanta are 13th in the table with 11 points from 10 games; Inter are 2nd with 25. In their last five league games Atalanta took 5 points (WLDDL) and Inter took 12 (WWWWL). This season Atalanta average 1.53 expected goals (xG) for and 1.88 against per game; Inter average 2.70 for and 1.06 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Atalanta won 0, Inter won 7 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
8
8
5
2
<1
1
5
10
10
6
3
1
2
3
6
6
4
2
<1
3
1
3
3
2
<1
<1
4
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Atalanta goalsColumns: Inter goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (10%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–110.0%
1–29.7%
0–27.7%
0–17.6%
1–36.4%
2–16.2%
1 or more goals
96%
2 or more goals
83%
3 or more goals
63%
4 or more goals
40%
5 or more goals
22%
Both teams score
62%

GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total: 1.25 for Atalanta and 1.97 for Inter.

Winning margin

Explained
Atalanta by 3
2%
Atalanta by 2
7%
Atalanta by 1
14%
Draw
22%
Inter by 3
9%
Inter by 2
16%
Inter by 1
22%

Each team's goals

Explained
Atalanta expected goals1.25
Inter expected goals1.97
Atalanta keep a clean sheet14%
Inter keep a clean sheet29%
Atalanta win without conceding10%
Inter win without conceding24%
Atalanta score 2 or more36%
Inter score 2 or more59%

Recent form

Atalanta
L v Parma0–3 · 2 Nov
D @ Fiorentina2–2 · 29 Oct
D v Frosinone4–4 · 25 Oct
L @ Milan2–3 · 18 Oct
W v Venezia3–1 · 12 Oct
Inter
L @ Milan1–3 · 31 Oct
W @ Venezia2–0 · 28 Oct
W v Fiorentina2–1 · 25 Oct
W @ Bologna3–1 · 17 Oct
W v Parma3–0 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Atalanta won 0, Inter won 7 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Inter 1–1 Atalanta14 Mar 2026
Atalanta 0–1 Inter28 Dec 2025
Atalanta 0–2 Inter16 Mar 2025
Inter 4–0 Atalanta30 Aug 2024
Inter 4–0 Atalanta28 Feb 2024
Atalanta 1–2 Inter4 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

ATAINT
1.60
Goals
2.60
2.00
Conceded
1.30
1.53
xG
2.70
1.88
xG against
1.06
13.7
Shots
22.0
5.2
On target
7.2
4.2
Corners
6.3
0.90
Yellow cards
1.40
10%
Clean sheets
30%
70%
Both score
70%
80%
3+ goals
80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Atalanta vs Inter?

GossipBall gives Atalanta a 24% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Inter 54%. GossipBall makes Inter favourites to beat Atalanta away from home.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Inter?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Atalanta, 2.0 for Inter). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Inter?

GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both Atalanta and Inter score.

Will there be three or more goals in Atalanta vs Inter?

There is a 63% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (1.3 for Atalanta, 2.0 for Inter).

When is Atalanta vs Inter?

Kick-off is Sunday 22 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Inter?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Atalanta won 0, Inter won 7 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC