Serie AThursday 29 October 2026 · 17:30

Frosinone vs Lecce prediction

Frosinone

50%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.3% chance

24%

draw

Lecce

26%

away win

Win probability: home 50%, draw 24%, away 26%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Frosinone favourites to beat Lecce at home in the Serie A on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Frosinone a 50% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Lecce 26%.

GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Frosinone and 1.2 from Lecce, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 56% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 31% of outcomes, Lecce in 17%.

Frosinone are 7th in the table with 14 points from 8 games; Lecce are 14th with 9. In their last five league games Frosinone took 8 points (DWLWD) and Lecce took 6 (WLLWL). This season Frosinone average 1.57 expected goals (xG) for and 2.40 against per game; Lecce average 1.38 for and 1.86 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2023, Frosinone won 0, Lecce won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 Mar 2024, was a 1–1 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Frosinone goalsColumns: Lecce goals

1–111.3%

2–19.6%

1–09.1%

2–08.2%

1–26.5%

0–16.0%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

79%

3 or more goals

56%

4 or more goals

34%

5 or more goals

17%

Both teams score

58%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.9 goals in total: 1.75 for Frosinone and 1.18 for Lecce.

Winning margin

Explained

Frosinone by 3

Frosinone by 2

15%

Frosinone by 1

23%

Draw

24%

Lecce by 3

Lecce by 2

Lecce by 1

15%

Each team's goals

Explained

Frosinone expected goals1.75

Lecce expected goals1.18

Frosinone keep a clean sheet31%

Lecce keep a clean sheet17%

Frosinone win without conceding25%

Lecce win without conceding12%

Frosinone score 2 or more52%

Lecce score 2 or more33%

Recent form

Frosinone

D @ Atalanta4–4 · 25 Oct

W v Sassuolo4–2 · 16 Oct

L @ Napoli0–3 · 10 Oct

W v Como2–0 · 20 Sep

D @ Genoa1–1 · 12 Sep

Lecce

L v Juventus0–2 · 25 Oct

W @ Udinese3–0 · 18 Oct

L v Bologna1–2 · 11 Oct

L @ Milan0–3 · 20 Sep

W v Monza3–2 · 13 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2023, Frosinone won 0, Lecce won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 Mar 2024, was a 1–1 draw.

Frosinone 1–1 Lecce3 Mar 2024

Lecce 2–1 Frosinone16 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

FRLE

2.12

Goals

1.12

1.62

Conceded

1.75

1.57

1.38

2.40

xG against

1.86

18.2

Shots

11.8

6.1

On target

4.6

5.9

Corners

4.5

2.00

Yellow cards

1.75

25%

Clean sheets

25%

50%

Both score

25%

62%

3+ goals

62%

Questions and answers

Who will win Frosinone vs Lecce?

GossipBall gives Frosinone a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lecce 26%. GossipBall makes Frosinone favourites to beat Lecce at home.

What is the most likely score in Frosinone vs Lecce?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Lecce?

GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Frosinone and Lecce score.

Will there be three or more goals in Frosinone vs Lecce?

There is a 56% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (1.8 for Frosinone, 1.2 for Lecce).

When is Frosinone vs Lecce?

Kick-off is Thursday 29 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Lecce?

In 2 league meetings since 2023, Frosinone won 0, Lecce won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 Mar 2024, was a 1–1 draw.