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Mainz vs Union Berlin prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Mainz favourites to beat Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives Mainz a 54% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Union Berlin 21%.
GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Mainz and 1.0 from Union Berlin, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 50% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Mainz keep a clean sheet in 38% of outcomes, Union Berlin in 18%.
Mainz are 12th in the table with 10 points from 9 games; Union Berlin are 16th with 7. In their last five league games Mainz took 3 points (LWLLL) and Union Berlin took 6 (WDDDL). This season Mainz average 1.91 expected goals (xG) for and 1.65 against per game; Union Berlin average 0.97 for and 1.98 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 0, Union Berlin won 6 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin, a win for Union Berlin.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.70 for Mainz and 0.97 for Union Berlin.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 0, Union Berlin won 6 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin, a win for Union Berlin.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Mainz vs Union Berlin?
GossipBall gives Mainz a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Union Berlin 21%. GossipBall makes Mainz favourites to beat Union Berlin at home.
What is the predicted score for Mainz vs Union Berlin?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.7 for Mainz, 1.0 for Union Berlin). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
Will both teams score in Mainz vs Union Berlin?
GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Mainz and Union Berlin score.
Will there be three or more goals in Mainz vs Union Berlin?
There is a 50% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.7 for Mainz, 1.0 for Union Berlin).
When is Mainz vs Union Berlin?
Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Mainz and Union Berlin?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 0, Union Berlin won 6 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin, a win for Union Berlin.