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RB Leipzig vs Mainz prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes RB Leipzig favourites to beat Mainz at home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives RB Leipzig a 58% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Mainz 20%.
GossipBall expects 2.1 goals from RB Leipzig and 1.2 from Mainz, so goals look likely: there is a 63% chance of three or more goals and a 61% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 31% of outcomes, Mainz in 12%.
RB Leipzig are 4th in the table with 18 points from 9 games; Mainz are 12th with 10. In their last five league games RB Leipzig took 12 points (WLWWW) and Mainz took 3 (LWLLL). This season RB Leipzig average 2.50 expected goals (xG) for and 1.51 against per game; Mainz average 1.91 for and 1.65 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, RB Leipzig won 3, Mainz won 5 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz, a win for Mainz.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (10%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total: 2.09 for RB Leipzig and 1.17 for Mainz.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, RB Leipzig won 3, Mainz won 5 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz, a win for Mainz.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Mainz?
GossipBall gives RB Leipzig a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mainz 20%. GossipBall makes RB Leipzig favourites to beat Mainz at home.
What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Mainz?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.1 for RB Leipzig, 1.2 for Mainz). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%).
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Mainz?
GossipBall gives a 61% chance that both RB Leipzig and Mainz score.
Will there be three or more goals in RB Leipzig vs Mainz?
There is a 63% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total (2.1 for RB Leipzig, 1.2 for Mainz).
When is RB Leipzig vs Mainz?
Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Mainz?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, RB Leipzig won 3, Mainz won 5 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz, a win for Mainz.