Champions LeagueMatchday 5Tuesday 24 November 2026 ·

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

70%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.5% chance
19%
draw
Win probability: home 70%, draw 19%, away 11%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Arsenal clear favourites to beat Borussia Dortmund at home in the Champions League on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Arsenal a 70% chance of winning, puts the draw at 19% and gives Borussia Dortmund 11%.

GossipBall expects 2.2 goals from Arsenal and 0.8 from Borussia Dortmund, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 57% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 47% of outcomes, Borussia Dortmund in 11%.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 10 November 2026, 13:12 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
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0
6
3
1
<1
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11
9
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<1
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Rows: Arsenal goalsColumns: Borussia Dortmund goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 2–0 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

2–012.6%
1–011.0%
2–19.5%
3–09.2%
1–19.1%
3–17.0%
1 or more goals
94%
2 or more goals
80%
3 or more goals
57%
4 or more goals
34%
5 or more goals
18%
Both teams score
48%

GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total: 2.21 for Arsenal and 0.76 for Borussia Dortmund.

Winning margin

Explained
Arsenal by 3
14%
Arsenal by 2
21%
Arsenal by 1
24%
Draw
19%
Borussia Dortmund by 3
1%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
2%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
8%

Each team's goals

Explained
Arsenal expected goals2.21
Borussia Dortmund expected goals0.76
Arsenal keep a clean sheet47%
Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet11%
Arsenal win without conceding41%
Borussia Dortmund win without conceding5%
Arsenal score 2 or more65%
Borussia Dortmund score 2 or more18%

Questions and answers

Who will win Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

GossipBall gives Arsenal a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Borussia Dortmund 11%. GossipBall makes Arsenal clear favourites to beat Borussia Dortmund at home.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.2 for Arsenal, 0.8 for Borussia Dortmund). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund score.

Will there be three or more goals in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

There is a 57% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (2.2 for Arsenal, 0.8 for Borussia Dortmund).

When is Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

Kick-off is Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 10 November 2026, 13:12 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 10 November 2026, 13:12 UTC