Champions LeagueMatchday 5Wednesday 25 November 2026 ·

Sporting CP vs Manchester United prediction

49%
home win
predicted score
3–1
6.1% chance
22%
draw
Win probability: home 49%, draw 22%, away 30%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Sporting CP favourites to beat Manchester United at home in the Champions League on Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Sporting CP a 49% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Manchester United 30%.

GossipBall expects 2.1 goals from Sporting CP and 1.7 from Manchester United, so goals look likely: there is a 73% chance of three or more goals and a 72% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 3–1. Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 19% of outcomes, Manchester United in 12%.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 11 November 2026, 06:07 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
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Rows: Sporting CP goalsColumns: Manchester United goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 2–1 (9%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

2–18.5%
1–18.4%
2–27.0%
1–26.6%
3–16.1%
2–05.1%
1 or more goals
97%
2 or more goals
90%
3 or more goals
73%
4 or more goals
53%
5 or more goals
33%
Both teams score
72%

GossipBall expects 3.8 goals in total: 2.14 for Sporting CP and 1.66 for Manchester United.

Winning margin

Explained
Sporting CP by 3
8%
Sporting CP by 2
15%
Sporting CP by 1
20%
Draw
22%
Manchester United by 3
4%
Manchester United by 2
9%
Manchester United by 1
15%

Each team's goals

Explained
Sporting CP expected goals2.14
Manchester United expected goals1.66
Sporting CP keep a clean sheet19%
Manchester United keep a clean sheet12%
Sporting CP win without conceding16%
Manchester United win without conceding9%
Sporting CP score 2 or more63%
Manchester United score 2 or more49%

Questions and answers

Who will win Sporting CP vs Manchester United?

GossipBall gives Sporting CP a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester United 30%. GossipBall makes Sporting CP favourites to beat Manchester United at home.

What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Manchester United?

GossipBall's predicted score is 3–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.1 for Sporting CP, 1.7 for Manchester United). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Manchester United?

GossipBall gives a 72% chance that both Sporting CP and Manchester United score.

Will there be three or more goals in Sporting CP vs Manchester United?

There is a 73% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.8 goals in total (2.1 for Sporting CP, 1.7 for Manchester United).

When is Sporting CP vs Manchester United?

Kick-off is Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 11 November 2026, 06:07 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 11 November 2026, 06:07 UTC