ChampionshipMatchday 16Saturday 21 November 2026 ·

Millwall vs QPR prediction

50%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.5% chance
26%
draw
24%
away win
Win probability: home 50%, draw 26%, away 24%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Millwall favourites to beat QPR at home in the Championship on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Millwall a 50% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives QPR 24%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Millwall and 1.0 from QPR, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 48% chance of three or more goals and a 51% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Millwall keep a clean sheet in 36% of outcomes, QPR in 20%.

Millwall are 13th in the table with 18 points from 14 games; QPR are 11th with 21. In their last five league games Millwall took 4 points (LDLWL) and QPR took 7 (WLWLD). This season Millwall average 1.88 expected goals (xG) for and 1.32 against per game; QPR average 1.67 for and 1.07 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Millwall won 6, QPR won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Millwall 2–0 QPR, a win for Millwall.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
7
4
1
<1
1
11
12
6
2
<1
<1
2
9
9
5
2
<1
3
5
5
3
<1
<1
4
2
2
1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Millwall goalsColumns: QPR goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.3%
1–011.3%
2–19.5%
2–09.3%
0–07.8%
0–17.1%
1 or more goals
92%
2 or more goals
74%
3 or more goals
48%
4 or more goals
27%
5 or more goals
12%
Both teams score
51%

GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.59 for Millwall and 1.02 for QPR.

Winning margin

Explained
Millwall by 3
7%
Millwall by 2
15%
Millwall by 1
24%
Draw
26%
QPR by 3
2%
QPR by 2
6%
QPR by 1
15%

Each team's goals

Explained
Millwall expected goals1.59
QPR expected goals1.02
Millwall keep a clean sheet36%
QPR keep a clean sheet20%
Millwall win without conceding28%
QPR win without conceding13%
Millwall score 2 or more47%
QPR score 2 or more27%

Recent form

Millwall
L @ Birmingham0–3 · 3 Nov
W v Derby4–1 · 31 Oct
L @ Portsmouth1–2 · 24 Oct
D v Lincoln2–2 · 17 Oct
L v Swansea0–1 · 13 Oct
QPR
D v Burnley1–1 · 3 Nov
L @ Southampton1–4 · 31 Oct
W v Swansea5–0 · 24 Oct
L @ Birmingham0–3 · 17 Oct
W v Derby4–1 · 14 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Millwall won 6, QPR won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Millwall 2–0 QPR, a win for Millwall.

Millwall 2–0 QPR18 Apr 2026
QPR 1–2 Millwall18 Oct 2025
Millwall 2–1 QPR1 Feb 2025
QPR 1–1 Millwall21 Sep 2024
QPR 2–0 Millwall20 Jan 2024
Millwall 2–0 QPR26 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

MILQPR
1.64
Goals
1.57
1.71
Conceded
1.21
1.88
xG
1.67
1.32
xG against
1.07
14.6
Shots
14.8
4.1
On target
4.9
5.4
Corners
5.6
2.00
Yellow cards
1.93
29%
Clean sheets
21%
50%
Both score
64%
79%
3+ goals
57%

Questions and answers

Who will win Millwall vs QPR?

GossipBall gives Millwall a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and QPR 24%. GossipBall makes Millwall favourites to beat QPR at home.

What is the predicted score for Millwall vs QPR?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.6 for Millwall, 1.0 for QPR). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Millwall vs QPR?

GossipBall gives a 51% chance that both Millwall and QPR score.

Will there be three or more goals in Millwall vs QPR?

There is a 48% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.6 for Millwall, 1.0 for QPR).

When is Millwall vs QPR?

Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and QPR?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Millwall won 6, QPR won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Millwall 2–0 QPR, a win for Millwall.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC