EredivisieMatchday 15Saturday 5 December 2026 ·

Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle prediction

45%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.3% chance
27%
draw
28%
away win
Win probability: home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Fortuna Sittard favourites to beat Zwolle at home in the Eredivisie on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Fortuna Sittard a 45% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Zwolle 28%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Fortuna Sittard and 1.2 from Zwolle, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 54% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 30% of outcomes, Zwolle in 20%.

Fortuna Sittard are 7th in the table with 20 points from 12 games; Zwolle are 13th with 12. In their last five league games Fortuna Sittard took 7 points (DDWDD) and Zwolle took 8 (LWDWD). This season Fortuna Sittard average 0.95 expected goals (xG) for and 2.06 against per game; Zwolle average 1.03 for and 1.65 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Fortuna Sittard won 3, Zwolle won 5 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Zwolle, a win for Fortuna Sittard.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
6
4
2
<1
<1
1
8
13
7
3
<1
<1
2
8
9
6
2
<1
<1
3
4
5
3
1
<1
4
2
2
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Fortuna Sittard goalsColumns: Zwolle goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–113.0%
2–19.3%
1–08.2%
2–07.7%
0–07.3%
1–27.1%
1 or more goals
93%
2 or more goals
79%
3 or more goals
54%
4 or more goals
31%
5 or more goals
16%
Both teams score
58%

GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.61 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.22 for Zwolle.

Winning margin

Explained
Fortuna Sittard by 3
7%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
14%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
21%
Draw
27%
Zwolle by 3
3%
Zwolle by 2
8%
Zwolle by 1
16%

Each team's goals

Explained
Fortuna Sittard expected goals1.61
Zwolle expected goals1.22
Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet30%
Zwolle keep a clean sheet20%
Fortuna Sittard win without conceding22%
Zwolle win without conceding13%
Fortuna Sittard score 2 or more48%
Zwolle score 2 or more34%

Recent form

Fortuna Sittard
D v Telstar2–2 · 7 Nov
D @ Feyenoord1–1 · 31 Oct
W v Excelsior1–0 · 25 Oct
D @ NEC Nijmegen2–2 · 18 Oct
D v Twente1–1 · 10 Oct
Zwolle
D @ Willem II1–1 · 6 Nov
W v Den Haag1–0 · 1 Nov
D @ Utrecht1–1 · 24 Oct
W v Go Ahead Eagles4–1 · 18 Oct
L v Cambuur0–1 · 11 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Fortuna Sittard won 3, Zwolle won 5 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Zwolle, a win for Fortuna Sittard.

Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Zwolle10 May 2026
Zwolle 1–0 Fortuna Sittard13 Dec 2025
Fortuna Sittard 1–4 Zwolle26 Jan 2025
Zwolle 3–1 Fortuna Sittard9 Nov 2024
Fortuna Sittard 3–1 Zwolle16 Mar 2024
Zwolle 2–0 Fortuna Sittard5 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

SITZWO
1.67
Goals
1.08
1.67
Conceded
2.00
0.95
xG
1.03
2.06
xG against
1.65
9.8
Shots
12.9
4.3
On target
4.2
2.7
Corners
4.7
1.58
Yellow cards
1.42
17%
Clean sheets
17%
75%
Both score
50%
58%
3+ goals
50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle?

GossipBall gives Fortuna Sittard a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Zwolle 28%. GossipBall makes Fortuna Sittard favourites to beat Zwolle at home.

What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.6 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.2 for Zwolle). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle?

GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Fortuna Sittard and Zwolle score.

Will there be three or more goals in Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle?

There is a 54% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.6 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.2 for Zwolle).

When is Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle?

Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Zwolle?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Fortuna Sittard won 3, Zwolle won 5 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Zwolle, a win for Fortuna Sittard.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC