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Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes AZ Alkmaar favourites to beat Sparta Rotterdam away from home in the Eredivisie on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC. It gives Sparta Rotterdam a 28% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives AZ Alkmaar 46%.
GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 1.7 from AZ Alkmaar, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 56% chance of three or more goals and a 59% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Sparta Rotterdam keep a clean sheet in 19% of outcomes, AZ Alkmaar in 29%.
Sparta Rotterdam are 11th in the table with 12 points from 11 games; AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20. In their last five league games Sparta Rotterdam took 7 points (LDWLW) and AZ Alkmaar took 4 (WLDLL). This season Sparta Rotterdam average 1.94 expected goals (xG) for and 1.88 against per game; AZ Alkmaar average 2.08 for and 1.17 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Sparta Rotterdam won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Feb 2026, finished AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam, a win for AZ Alkmaar.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total: 1.25 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.66 for AZ Alkmaar.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Sparta Rotterdam won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Feb 2026, finished AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam, a win for AZ Alkmaar.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
GossipBall gives Sparta Rotterdam a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and AZ Alkmaar 46%. GossipBall makes AZ Alkmaar favourites to beat Sparta Rotterdam away from home.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.2 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
GossipBall gives a 59% chance that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar score.
Will there be three or more goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
There is a 56% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (1.2 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar).
When is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Kick-off is Sunday 22 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Sparta Rotterdam won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Feb 2026, finished AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam, a win for AZ Alkmaar.