EredivisieMatchday 16Saturday 12 December 2026 ·

Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard prediction

57%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.9% chance
24%
draw
19%
away win
Win probability: home 57%, draw 24%, away 19%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Utrecht favourites to beat Fortuna Sittard at home in the Eredivisie on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It gives Utrecht a 57% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Fortuna Sittard 19%.

GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from Utrecht and 1.1 from Fortuna Sittard, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 58% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Fortuna Sittard in 14%.

Utrecht are 14th in the table with 12 points from 12 games; Fortuna Sittard are 7th with 20. In their last five league games Utrecht took 7 points (WWDLL) and Fortuna Sittard took 7 (DDWDD). This season Utrecht average 1.45 expected goals (xG) for and 1.87 against per game; Fortuna Sittard average 0.95 for and 2.06 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Utrecht won 3, Fortuna Sittard won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Utrecht 2–0 Fortuna Sittard, a win for Utrecht.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
4
3
<1
<1
1
8
11
5
2
<1
<1
2
9
10
5
2
<1
<1
3
6
6
3
1
<1
4
3
3
2
<1
<1
5
1
1
<1
<1
Rows: Utrecht goalsColumns: Fortuna Sittard goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–111.5%
2–19.9%
2–09.4%
1–08.5%
3–16.4%
0–06.2%
1 or more goals
94%
2 or more goals
81%
3 or more goals
58%
4 or more goals
35%
5 or more goals
18%
Both teams score
57%

GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.94 for Utrecht and 1.06 for Fortuna Sittard.

Winning margin

Explained
Utrecht by 3
10%
Utrecht by 2
18%
Utrecht by 1
22%
Draw
24%
Fortuna Sittard by 3
2%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
5%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
12%

Each team's goals

Explained
Utrecht expected goals1.94
Fortuna Sittard expected goals1.06
Utrecht keep a clean sheet35%
Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet14%
Utrecht win without conceding28%
Fortuna Sittard win without conceding8%
Utrecht score 2 or more58%
Fortuna Sittard score 2 or more29%

Recent form

Utrecht
L v NEC Nijmegen2–3 · 8 Nov
L @ Telstar2–4 · 1 Nov
D v Zwolle1–1 · 24 Oct
W @ Twente2–1 · 18 Oct
W v Willem II3–1 · 11 Oct
Fortuna Sittard
D v Telstar2–2 · 7 Nov
D @ Feyenoord1–1 · 31 Oct
W v Excelsior1–0 · 25 Oct
D @ NEC Nijmegen2–2 · 18 Oct
D v Twente1–1 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Utrecht won 3, Fortuna Sittard won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Utrecht 2–0 Fortuna Sittard, a win for Utrecht.

Utrecht 2–0 Fortuna Sittard17 May 2026
Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Utrecht20 Sep 2025
Fortuna Sittard 0–0 Utrecht18 May 2025
Utrecht 2–5 Fortuna Sittard22 Dec 2024
Utrecht 4–0 Fortuna Sittard11 Feb 2024
Fortuna Sittard 0–0 Utrecht28 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

UTRSIT
1.75
Goals
1.67
2.83
Conceded
1.67
1.45
xG
0.95
1.87
xG against
2.06
14.1
Shots
9.8
4.5
On target
4.3
4.4
Corners
2.7
2.08
Yellow cards
1.58
0%
Clean sheets
17%
92%
Both score
75%
92%
3+ goals
58%

Questions and answers

Who will win Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

GossipBall gives Utrecht a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fortuna Sittard 19%. GossipBall makes Utrecht favourites to beat Fortuna Sittard at home.

What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.9 for Utrecht, 1.1 for Fortuna Sittard). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard score.

Will there be three or more goals in Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

There is a 58% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.9 for Utrecht, 1.1 for Fortuna Sittard).

When is Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Utrecht won 3, Fortuna Sittard won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Utrecht 2–0 Fortuna Sittard, a win for Utrecht.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC