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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Real Madrid favourites to beat Athletic Club away from home in La Liga on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 00:00 UTC. It gives Athletic Club a 24% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Real Madrid 51%.
GossipBall expects 1.0 goals from Athletic Club and 1.6 from Real Madrid, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 51% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 20% of outcomes, Real Madrid in 36%.
Athletic Club are 7th in the table with 16 points from 11 games; Real Madrid are 2nd with 30. In their last five league games Athletic Club took 8 points (DLWWD) and Real Madrid took 15 (WWWWW). This season Athletic Club average 1.65 expected goals (xG) for and 1.13 against per game; Real Madrid average 2.47 for and 0.94 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Athletic Club won 1, Real Madrid won 8 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 23 May 2026, finished Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club, a win for Real Madrid.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.03 for Athletic Club and 1.61 for Real Madrid.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Athletic Club won 1, Real Madrid won 8 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 23 May 2026, finished Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club, a win for Real Madrid.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
GossipBall gives Athletic Club a 24% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Madrid 51%. GossipBall makes Real Madrid favourites to beat Athletic Club away from home.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.0 for Athletic Club, 1.6 for Real Madrid). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (12%), 1–2 (10%).
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
GossipBall gives a 51% chance that both Athletic Club and Real Madrid score.
Will there be three or more goals in Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.0 for Athletic Club, 1.6 for Real Madrid).
When is Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
Kick-off is Sunday 6 December 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Real Madrid?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Athletic Club won 1, Real Madrid won 8 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 23 May 2026, finished Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club, a win for Real Madrid.