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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Barcelona clear favourites to beat Atlético Madrid at home in La Liga on Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It gives Barcelona a 64% chance of winning, puts the draw at 18% and gives Atlético Madrid 17%.
GossipBall expects 2.4 goals from Barcelona and 1.1 from Atlético Madrid, so goals look likely: there is a 68% chance of three or more goals and a 61% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Barcelona keep a clean sheet in 32% of outcomes, Atlético Madrid in 10%.
Barcelona are 1st in the table with 33 points from 12 games; Atlético Madrid are 3rd with 28. In their last five league games Barcelona took 12 points (WWLWW) and Atlético Madrid took 12 (WWWWL). This season Barcelona average 3.24 expected goals (xG) for and 1.11 against per game; Atlético Madrid average 1.61 for and 1.13 against.
In 11 league meetings since 2021, Barcelona won 9, Atlético Madrid won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Nov 2026, finished Atlético Madrid 1–2 Barcelona, a win for Barcelona.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how).
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total: 2.35 for Barcelona and 1.14 for Atlético Madrid.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 11 league meetings since 2021, Barcelona won 9, Atlético Madrid won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Nov 2026, finished Atlético Madrid 1–2 Barcelona, a win for Barcelona.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid?
GossipBall gives Barcelona a 64% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Atlético Madrid 17%. GossipBall makes Barcelona clear favourites to beat Atlético Madrid at home.
What is the predicted score for Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.4 for Barcelona, 1.1 for Atlético Madrid). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid?
GossipBall gives a 61% chance that both Barcelona and Atlético Madrid score.
Will there be three or more goals in Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid?
There is a 68% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total (2.4 for Barcelona, 1.1 for Atlético Madrid).
When is Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid?
Kick-off is Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Atlético Madrid?
In 11 league meetings since 2021, Barcelona won 9, Atlético Madrid won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Nov 2026, finished Atlético Madrid 1–2 Barcelona, a win for Barcelona.