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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Osasuna favourites to beat Malaga at home in La Liga on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Osasuna a 59% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Malaga 18%.
GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Osasuna and 0.8 from Malaga, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 46% chance of three or more goals and a 45% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 44% of outcomes, Malaga in 18%.
Osasuna are 15th in the table with 11 points from 11 games; Malaga are 20th with 5. In their last five league games Osasuna took 4 points (DLWLL) and Malaga took 2 (LDLDL). This season Osasuna average 1.47 expected goals (xG) for and 1.49 against per game; Malaga average 0.88 for and 1.70 against.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (14%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.71 for Osasuna and 0.81 for Malaga.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Osasuna vs Malaga?
GossipBall gives Osasuna a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malaga 18%. GossipBall makes Osasuna favourites to beat Malaga at home.
What is the predicted score for Osasuna vs Malaga?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.7 for Osasuna, 0.8 for Malaga). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Malaga?
GossipBall gives a 45% chance that both Osasuna and Malaga score.
Will there be three or more goals in Osasuna vs Malaga?
There is a 46% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.7 for Osasuna, 0.8 for Malaga).
When is Osasuna vs Malaga?
Kick-off is Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.