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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Rayo Vallecano slight favourites to beat Valencia at home in La Liga on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:15 UTC. It gives Rayo Vallecano a 45% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Valencia 27%.
GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Rayo Vallecano and 0.9 from Valencia, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 38% chance of three or more goals and a 44% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–0. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 40% of outcomes, Valencia in 28%.
Rayo Vallecano are 12th in the table with 12 points from 10 games; Valencia are 19th with 9. In their last five league games Rayo Vallecano took 8 points (WDDLW) and Valencia took 5 (LDDLW). This season Rayo Vallecano average 1.37 expected goals (xG) for and 1.68 against per game; Valencia average 1.02 for and 1.47 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Valencia won 1 and 7 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (14%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.2 goals in total: 1.29 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.93 for Valencia.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Valencia won 1 and 7 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
GossipBall gives Rayo Vallecano a 45% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Valencia 27%. GossipBall makes Rayo Vallecano slight favourites to beat Valencia at home.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–0, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.9 for Valencia). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
GossipBall gives a 44% chance that both Rayo Vallecano and Valencia score.
Will there be three or more goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
There is a 38% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.2 goals in total (1.3 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.9 for Valencia).
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Valencia won 1 and 7 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.