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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Sevilla favourites to beat Malaga at home in La Liga on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 00:00 UTC. It gives Sevilla a 60% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Malaga 17%.
GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Sevilla and 0.8 from Malaga, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 47% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 43% of outcomes, Malaga in 17%.
Sevilla are 6th in the table with 18 points from 12 games; Malaga are 20th with 5. In their last five league games Sevilla took 5 points (DLWLD) and Malaga took 2 (DLDLL). This season Sevilla average 1.08 expected goals (xG) for and 1.33 against per game; Malaga average 0.98 for and 1.75 against.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.79 for Sevilla and 0.84 for Malaga.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Sevilla vs Malaga?
GossipBall gives Sevilla a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malaga 17%. GossipBall makes Sevilla favourites to beat Malaga at home.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Malaga?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.8 for Sevilla, 0.8 for Malaga). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Malaga?
GossipBall gives a 47% chance that both Sevilla and Malaga score.
Will there be three or more goals in Sevilla vs Malaga?
There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.8 for Sevilla, 0.8 for Malaga).
When is Sevilla vs Malaga?
Kick-off is Sunday 6 December 2026 at 00:00 UTC.