Ligue 1Matchday 12Friday 27 November 2026 ·

Brest vs Paris FC prediction

37%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.4% chance
26%
draw
37%
away win
Win probability: home 37%, draw 26%, away 37%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Brest against Paris FC as too close to call in Ligue 1 on Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Brest a 37% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Paris FC 37%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Brest and 1.4 from Paris FC, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 54% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Brest keep a clean sheet in 24% of outcomes, Paris FC in 24%.

Brest are 9th in the table with 15 points from 10 games; Paris FC are 3rd with 20. In their last five league games Brest took 10 points (WDLWW) and Paris FC took 9 (LWLWW). This season Brest average 1.96 expected goals (xG) for and 1.23 against per game; Paris FC average 1.72 for and 0.97 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Brest won 0, Paris FC won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Paris FC 4–0 Brest, a win for Paris FC.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
8
6
3
<1
<1
1
8
12
8
4
1
<1
2
6
8
6
3
<1
<1
3
3
4
3
1
<1
<1
4
1
1
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Brest goalsColumns: Paris FC goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.3%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%
1–07.8%
0–17.7%
0–06.4%
1 or more goals
94%
2 or more goals
78%
3 or more goals
54%
4 or more goals
32%
5 or more goals
16%
Both teams score
58%

GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.43 for Brest and 1.41 for Paris FC.

Winning margin

Explained
Brest by 3
5%
Brest by 2
11%
Brest by 1
20%
Draw
26%
Paris FC by 3
4%
Paris FC by 2
11%
Paris FC by 1
19%

Each team's goals

Explained
Brest expected goals1.43
Paris FC expected goals1.41
Brest keep a clean sheet24%
Paris FC keep a clean sheet24%
Brest win without conceding18%
Paris FC win without conceding18%
Brest score 2 or more42%
Paris FC score 2 or more41%

Recent form

Brest
W v Lyon2–0 · 8 Nov
W @ Lorient2–0 · 2 Nov
L v Nice1–2 · 23 Oct
D @ Lille1–1 · 17 Oct
W v Angers5–1 · 10 Oct
Paris FC
W @ Auxerre1–0 · 7 Nov
W v Monaco3–1 · 1 Nov
L @ Lens1–2 · 24 Oct
W v Rennes4–3 · 18 Oct
L @ Lorient0–1 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Brest won 0, Paris FC won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Paris FC 4–0 Brest, a win for Paris FC.

Paris FC 4–0 Brest3 May 2026
Brest 1–2 Paris FC14 Sep 2025

Season averages per game

BREPFC
1.80
Goals
1.70
1.20
Conceded
1.00
1.96
xG
1.72
1.23
xG against
0.97
16.0
Shots
13.5
5.7
On target
4.9
4.0
Corners
3.6
1.40
Yellow cards
2.20
20%
Clean sheets
40%
70%
Both score
50%
60%
3+ goals
60%

Questions and answers

Who will win Brest vs Paris FC?

GossipBall gives Brest a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Paris FC 37%. GossipBall sees Brest against Paris FC as too close to call.

What is the predicted score for Brest vs Paris FC?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.4 for Brest, 1.4 for Paris FC). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Brest vs Paris FC?

GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Brest and Paris FC score.

Will there be three or more goals in Brest vs Paris FC?

There is a 54% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.4 for Brest, 1.4 for Paris FC).

When is Brest vs Paris FC?

Kick-off is Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Brest and Paris FC?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Brest won 0, Paris FC won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Paris FC 4–0 Brest, a win for Paris FC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC