Ligue 1Matchday 14Saturday 12 December 2026 ·

Le Havre vs Le Mans prediction

42%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.9% chance
26%
draw
32%
away win
Win probability: home 42%, draw 26%, away 32%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Le Havre slight favourites to beat Le Mans at home in Ligue 1 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Le Havre a 42% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Le Mans 32%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Le Havre and 1.3 from Le Mans, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 55% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 26% of outcomes, Le Mans in 22%.

Le Havre are 18th in the table with 2 points from 10 games; Le Mans are 15th with 8. In their last five league games Le Havre took 0 points (LLLLL) and Le Mans took 2 (LLDLD). This season Le Havre average 1.57 expected goals (xG) for and 1.90 against per game; Le Mans average 1.38 for and 1.95 against.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
7
5
2
<1
<1
1
8
12
8
3
1
<1
2
7
9
6
3
<1
<1
3
3
5
3
1
<1
<1
4
1
2
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Le Havre goalsColumns: Le Mans goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.2%
2–18.9%
1–08.2%
1–27.7%
0–17.0%
2–06.7%
1 or more goals
94%
2 or more goals
79%
3 or more goals
55%
4 or more goals
32%
5 or more goals
16%
Both teams score
58%

GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total: 1.54 for Le Havre and 1.33 for Le Mans.

Winning margin

Explained
Le Havre by 3
6%
Le Havre by 2
13%
Le Havre by 1
21%
Draw
26%
Le Mans by 3
4%
Le Mans by 2
9%
Le Mans by 1
18%

Each team's goals

Explained
Le Havre expected goals1.54
Le Mans expected goals1.33
Le Havre keep a clean sheet26%
Le Mans keep a clean sheet22%
Le Havre win without conceding20%
Le Mans win without conceding15%
Le Havre score 2 or more45%
Le Mans score 2 or more38%

Recent form

Le Havre
L v Lorient0–2 · 8 Nov
L v Paris Saint-Germain1–5 · 30 Oct
L @ Marseille3–4 · 25 Oct
L v Auxerre1–3 · 18 Oct
L @ Lille0–1 · 10 Oct
Le Mans
D v Monaco1–1 · 8 Nov
L @ Troyes0–2 · 31 Oct
D @ Auxerre1–1 · 25 Oct
L v Toulouse0–3 · 16 Oct
L @ Paris Saint-Germain1–3 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

HACLMF
0.90
Goals
1.20
2.20
Conceded
1.90
1.57
xG
1.38
1.90
xG against
1.95
16.7
Shots
10.7
5.0
On target
3.6
5.3
Corners
3.0
1.50
Yellow cards
2.30
10%
Clean sheets
0%
60%
Both score
80%
50%
3+ goals
60%

Questions and answers

Who will win Le Havre vs Le Mans?

GossipBall gives Le Havre a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Le Mans 32%. GossipBall makes Le Havre slight favourites to beat Le Mans at home.

What is the predicted score for Le Havre vs Le Mans?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.5 for Le Havre, 1.3 for Le Mans). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Le Mans?

GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Le Havre and Le Mans score.

Will there be three or more goals in Le Havre vs Le Mans?

There is a 55% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (1.5 for Le Havre, 1.3 for Le Mans).

When is Le Havre vs Le Mans?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC