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Lens vs Toulouse prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Lens favourites to beat Toulouse at home in Ligue 1 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Lens a 53% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Toulouse 22%.
GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Lens and 1.0 from Toulouse, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 51% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Lens keep a clean sheet in 37% of outcomes, Toulouse in 18%.
Lens are 9th in the table with 13 points from 9 games; Toulouse are 12th with 10. In their last five league games Lens took 9 points (LWWWL) and Toulouse took 8 (WDWDL). This season Lens average 1.69 expected goals (xG) for and 1.49 against per game; Toulouse average 1.87 for and 1.29 against.
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Lens won 6, Toulouse won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 17 Apr 2026, finished Lens 3–2 Toulouse, a win for Lens.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.71 for Lens and 1.00 for Toulouse.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 8 league meetings since 2022, Lens won 6, Toulouse won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 17 Apr 2026, finished Lens 3–2 Toulouse, a win for Lens.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
GossipBall gives Lens a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Toulouse 22%. GossipBall makes Lens favourites to beat Toulouse at home.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Toulouse?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.7 for Lens, 1.0 for Toulouse). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Lens vs Toulouse?
GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Lens and Toulouse score.
Will there be three or more goals in Lens vs Toulouse?
There is a 51% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.7 for Lens, 1.0 for Toulouse).
When is Lens vs Toulouse?
Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Toulouse?
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Lens won 6, Toulouse won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 17 Apr 2026, finished Lens 3–2 Toulouse, a win for Lens.