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Ligue 1Matchday 11Friday 20 November 2026 ·

Troyes vs Le Havre prediction

38%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.2% chance
28%
draw
34%
away win
Win probability: home 38%, draw 28%, away 34%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Troyes against Le Havre as too close to call in Ligue 1 on Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Troyes a 38% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Le Havre 34%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Troyes and 1.2 from Le Havre, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 46% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Troyes keep a clean sheet in 29% of outcomes, Le Havre in 28%.

Troyes are 16th in the table with 8 points from 9 games; Le Havre are 18th with 2. In their last five league games Troyes took 4 points (LLLDW) and Le Havre took 0 (LLLLL). This season Troyes average 1.23 expected goals (xG) for and 1.49 against per game; Le Havre average 1.64 for and 1.93 against.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 6 November 2026, 15:02 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
9
6
2
<1
<1
1
10
13
8
3
<1
<1
2
7
8
5
2
<1
<1
3
3
4
2
<1
<1
4
<1
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Troyes goalsColumns: Le Havre goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–113.4%
1–09.9%
0–19.3%
0–08.7%
2–18.2%
1–27.8%
1 or more goals
91%
2 or more goals
72%
3 or more goals
46%
4 or more goals
24%
5 or more goals
11%
Both teams score
52%

GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.29 for Troyes and 1.22 for Le Havre.

Winning margin

Explained
Troyes by 3
4%
Troyes by 2
11%
Troyes by 1
21%
Draw
28%
Le Havre by 3
4%
Le Havre by 2
10%
Le Havre by 1
19%

Each team's goals

Explained
Troyes expected goals1.29
Le Havre expected goals1.22
Troyes keep a clean sheet29%
Le Havre keep a clean sheet28%
Troyes win without conceding21%
Le Havre win without conceding19%
Troyes score 2 or more37%
Le Havre score 2 or more34%

Recent form

Troyes
W v Le Mans2–0 · 31 Oct
D @ Toulouse0–0 · 25 Oct
L v Lens1–3 · 17 Oct
L v Marseille0–2 · 11 Oct
L @ Angers0–2 · 19 Sep
Le Havre
L v Paris Saint-Germain1–5 · 30 Oct
L @ Marseille3–4 · 25 Oct
L v Auxerre1–3 · 18 Oct
L @ Lille0–1 · 10 Oct
L @ Toulouse2–3 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

ETRHAC
0.78
Goals
1.00
1.78
Conceded
2.22
1.23
xG
1.64
1.49
xG against
1.93
13.7
Shots
16.2
3.3
On target
5.0
6.2
Corners
5.3
1.78
Yellow cards
1.56
33%
Clean sheets
11%
33%
Both score
67%
33%
3+ goals
56%

Questions and answers

Who will win Troyes vs Le Havre?

GossipBall gives Troyes a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Le Havre 34%. GossipBall sees Troyes against Le Havre as too close to call.

What is the predicted score for Troyes vs Le Havre?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Troyes, 1.2 for Le Havre). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Le Havre?

GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Troyes and Le Havre score.

Will there be three or more goals in Troyes vs Le Havre?

There is a 46% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.3 for Troyes, 1.2 for Le Havre).

When is Troyes vs Le Havre?

Kick-off is Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

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Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 6 November 2026, 15:02 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·