Premier LeagueMatchday 14Saturday 5 December 2026 ·

Brentford vs Manchester City prediction

25%
home win
predicted score
1–2
9.7% chance
25%
draw
50%
away win
Win probability: home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Manchester City favourites to beat Brentford away from home in the Premier League on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Brentford a 25% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Manchester City 50%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Brentford and 1.8 from Manchester City, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 58% chance of three or more goals and a 60% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Brentford keep a clean sheet in 16% of outcomes, Manchester City in 30%.

Brentford are 8th in the table with 14 points from 10 games; Manchester City are 3rd with 21. In their last five league games Brentford took 5 points (DLDWL) and Manchester City took 6 (WWLLL). This season Brentford average 1.45 expected goals (xG) for and 1.48 against per game; Manchester City average 2.04 for and 1.25 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Brentford won 2, Manchester City won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 9 May 2026, finished Manchester City 3–0 Brentford, a win for Manchester City.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
8
8
5
2
<1
1
5
12
10
6
3
<1
2
4
6
6
4
2
<1
3
1
3
2
1
<1
<1
4
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Brentford goalsColumns: Manchester City goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–111.6%
1–29.7%
0–28.0%
0–18.0%
2–16.5%
2–25.9%
1 or more goals
94%
2 or more goals
81%
3 or more goals
58%
4 or more goals
36%
5 or more goals
19%
Both teams score
60%

GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.21 for Brentford and 1.80 for Manchester City.

Winning margin

Explained
Brentford by 3
2%
Brentford by 2
7%
Brentford by 1
14%
Draw
25%
Manchester City by 3
8%
Manchester City by 2
16%
Manchester City by 1
22%

Each team's goals

Explained
Brentford expected goals1.21
Manchester City expected goals1.80
Brentford keep a clean sheet16%
Manchester City keep a clean sheet30%
Brentford win without conceding11%
Manchester City win without conceding24%
Brentford score 2 or more34%
Manchester City score 2 or more54%

Recent form

Brentford
L @ Brighton0–2 · 8 Nov
W v Nottingham Forest2–0 · 31 Oct
D @ Hull1–1 · 25 Oct
L v Liverpool1–2 · 17 Oct
D @ Aston Villa2–2 · 10 Oct
Manchester City
L @ Nottingham Forest1–3 · 7 Nov
L v Brighton0–1 · 31 Oct
L @ Aston Villa1–2 · 24 Oct
W v Ipswich3–2 · 17 Oct
W @ Liverpool3–0 · 11 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Brentford won 2, Manchester City won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 9 May 2026, finished Manchester City 3–0 Brentford, a win for Manchester City.

Manchester City 3–0 Brentford9 May 2026
Brentford 0–1 Manchester City5 Oct 2025
Brentford 2–2 Manchester City14 Jan 2025
Manchester City 2–1 Brentford14 Sep 2024
Manchester City 1–0 Brentford20 Feb 2024
Brentford 1–3 Manchester City5 Feb 2024

Season averages per game

BREMCI
1.60
Goals
2.10
1.10
Conceded
1.30
1.45
xG
2.04
1.48
xG against
1.25
13.1
Shots
15.0
3.6
On target
5.4
3.9
Corners
6.1
2.40
Yellow cards
1.50
30%
Clean sheets
30%
60%
Both score
60%
50%
3+ goals
70%

Questions and answers

Who will win Brentford vs Manchester City?

GossipBall gives Brentford a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Manchester City 50%. GossipBall makes Manchester City favourites to beat Brentford away from home.

What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Manchester City?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.2 for Brentford, 1.8 for Manchester City). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Brentford vs Manchester City?

GossipBall gives a 60% chance that both Brentford and Manchester City score.

Will there be three or more goals in Brentford vs Manchester City?

There is a 58% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.2 for Brentford, 1.8 for Manchester City).

When is Brentford vs Manchester City?

Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Manchester City?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Brentford won 2, Manchester City won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 9 May 2026, finished Manchester City 3–0 Brentford, a win for Manchester City.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC