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Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Arsenal favourites to beat Newcastle United away from home in the Premier League on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Newcastle United a 20% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Arsenal 55%.
GossipBall expects 1.0 goals from Newcastle United and 1.7 from Arsenal, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 51% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Newcastle United keep a clean sheet in 17% of outcomes, Arsenal in 38%.
Newcastle United are 13th in the table with 11 points from 9 games; Arsenal are 1st with 24. In their last five league games Newcastle United took 6 points (WLLWL) and Arsenal took 12 (LWWWW). This season Newcastle United average 1.17 expected goals (xG) for and 1.74 against per game; Arsenal average 1.65 for and 0.80 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Newcastle United won 3, Arsenal won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United, a win for Arsenal.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total: 0.96 for Newcastle United and 1.75 for Arsenal.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Newcastle United won 3, Arsenal won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United, a win for Arsenal.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
GossipBall gives Newcastle United a 20% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal 55%. GossipBall makes Arsenal favourites to beat Newcastle United away from home.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.0 for Newcastle United, 1.7 for Arsenal). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%).
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Newcastle United and Arsenal score.
Will there be three or more goals in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
There is a 51% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.0 for Newcastle United, 1.7 for Arsenal).
When is Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle United and Arsenal?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Newcastle United won 3, Arsenal won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United, a win for Arsenal.