Premier LeagueMatchday 14Saturday 5 December 2026 ·

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton prediction

predicted score
1–2
8.3% chance
28%
draw
37%
away win
Win probability: home 36%, draw 28%, away 37%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Nottingham Forest against Brighton as too close to call in the Premier League on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Nottingham Forest a 36% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Brighton 37%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Nottingham Forest and 1.4 from Brighton, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 51% chance of three or more goals and a 56% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 26% of outcomes, Brighton in 26%.

Nottingham Forest are 16th in the table with 9 points from 10 games; Brighton are 2nd with 22. In their last five league games Nottingham Forest took 4 points (LLDLW) and Brighton took 12 (WWLWW). This season Nottingham Forest average 1.57 expected goals (xG) for and 1.10 against per game; Brighton average 1.93 for and 1.36 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Nottingham Forest won 2, Brighton won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 1 Mar 2026, finished Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest, a win for Brighton.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
8
6
3
<1
<1
1
8
13
8
4
1
<1
2
6
8
6
3
<1
<1
3
3
4
3
1
<1
<1
4
<1
1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Nottingham Forest goalsColumns: Brighton goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–113.2%
1–28.3%
2–18.2%
0–18.0%
1–07.9%
0–07.6%
1 or more goals
92%
2 or more goals
76%
3 or more goals
51%
4 or more goals
29%
5 or more goals
14%
Both teams score
56%

GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.35 for Nottingham Forest and 1.37 for Brighton.

Winning margin

Explained
Nottingham Forest by 3
4%
Nottingham Forest by 2
11%
Nottingham Forest by 1
19%
Draw
28%
Brighton by 3
4%
Brighton by 2
11%
Brighton by 1
19%

Each team's goals

Explained
Nottingham Forest expected goals1.35
Brighton expected goals1.37
Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet26%
Brighton keep a clean sheet26%
Nottingham Forest win without conceding18%
Brighton win without conceding18%
Nottingham Forest score 2 or more39%
Brighton score 2 or more40%

Recent form

Nottingham Forest
W v Manchester City3–1 · 7 Nov
L @ Brentford0–2 · 31 Oct
D @ Ipswich1–1 · 23 Oct
L v Arsenal0–1 · 18 Oct
L @ Crystal Palace1–3 · 11 Oct
Brighton
W v Brentford2–0 · 8 Nov
W @ Manchester City1–0 · 31 Oct
L @ Liverpool0–2 · 25 Oct
W v Crystal Palace5–0 · 18 Oct
W @ Sunderland2–0 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Nottingham Forest won 2, Brighton won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 1 Mar 2026, finished Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest, a win for Brighton.

Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest1 Mar 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–2 Brighton30 Nov 2025
Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton1 Feb 2025
Brighton 2–2 Nottingham Forest22 Sep 2024
Brighton 1–0 Nottingham Forest10 Mar 2024
Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton25 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

NOTBHA
0.90
Goals
2.60
1.30
Conceded
0.70
1.57
xG
1.93
1.10
xG against
1.36
16.3
Shots
16.9
3.6
On target
5.2
4.5
Corners
5.1
2.00
Yellow cards
2.40
10%
Clean sheets
70%
50%
Both score
20%
40%
3+ goals
50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Brighton?

GossipBall gives Nottingham Forest a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Brighton 37%. GossipBall sees Nottingham Forest against Brighton as too close to call.

What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Brighton?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Nottingham Forest, 1.4 for Brighton). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Brighton?

GossipBall gives a 56% chance that both Nottingham Forest and Brighton score.

Will there be three or more goals in Nottingham Forest vs Brighton?

There is a 51% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.3 for Nottingham Forest, 1.4 for Brighton).

When is Nottingham Forest vs Brighton?

Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Brighton?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Nottingham Forest won 2, Brighton won 4 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 1 Mar 2026, finished Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest, a win for Brighton.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC