Primeira LigaMatchday 12Saturday 28 November 2026 ·

Academico Viseu vs Alverca prediction

48%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.2% chance
25%
draw
27%
away win
Win probability: home 48%, draw 25%, away 27%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Academico Viseu favourites to beat Alverca at home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It gives Academico Viseu a 48% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Alverca 27%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Academico Viseu and 1.0 from Alverca, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 46% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Academico Viseu keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Alverca in 22%.

Academico Viseu are 6th in the table with 20 points from 11 games; Alverca are 11th with 12. In their last five league games Academico Viseu took 12 points (WWWWL) and Alverca took 7 (WWLLD). This season Academico Viseu average 1.11 expected goals (xG) for and 1.61 against per game; Alverca average 1.30 for and 1.56 against.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
9
4
1
<1
1
12
12
6
2
<1
<1
2
9
9
5
2
<1
3
4
5
2
<1
<1
4
2
2
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Academico Viseu goalsColumns: Alverca goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–012.2%
1–112.0%
2–19.2%
2–08.9%
0–18.6%
0–07.6%
1 or more goals
92%
2 or more goals
72%
3 or more goals
46%
4 or more goals
25%
5 or more goals
11%
Both teams score
50%

GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.49 for Academico Viseu and 1.04 for Alverca.

Winning margin

Explained
Academico Viseu by 3
6%
Academico Viseu by 2
14%
Academico Viseu by 1
24%
Draw
25%
Alverca by 3
2%
Alverca by 2
7%
Alverca by 1
17%

Each team's goals

Explained
Academico Viseu expected goals1.49
Alverca expected goals1.04
Academico Viseu keep a clean sheet35%
Alverca keep a clean sheet22%
Academico Viseu win without conceding28%
Alverca win without conceding15%
Academico Viseu score 2 or more44%
Alverca score 2 or more28%

Recent form

Academico Viseu
L @ Nacional0–1 · 8 Nov
W v Rio Ave2–1 · 1 Nov
W @ Sporting CP2–1 · 25 Oct
W v Estoril2–1 · 10 Oct
W @ Estrela2–0 · 20 Sep
Alverca
D v Casa Pia1–1 · 7 Nov
L @ Benfica0–1 · 2 Nov
L v Arouca0–1 · 24 Oct
W @ Famalicão4–1 · 12 Oct
W v Rio Ave1–0 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

ACVALV
1.36
Goals
1.27
1.18
Conceded
1.36
1.11
xG
1.30
1.61
xG against
1.56
10.3
Shots
11.8
3.8
On target
3.9
2.8
Corners
5.0
2.91
Yellow cards
2.09
18%
Clean sheets
9%
55%
Both score
64%
64%
3+ goals
46%

Questions and answers

Who will win Academico Viseu vs Alverca?

GossipBall gives Academico Viseu a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alverca 27%. GossipBall makes Academico Viseu favourites to beat Alverca at home.

What is the predicted score for Academico Viseu vs Alverca?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.5 for Academico Viseu, 1.0 for Alverca). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Academico Viseu vs Alverca?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Academico Viseu and Alverca score.

Will there be three or more goals in Academico Viseu vs Alverca?

There is a 46% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.5 for Academico Viseu, 1.0 for Alverca).

When is Academico Viseu vs Alverca?

Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC