Primeira LigaMatchday 14Saturday 12 December 2026 ·

Estoril vs Santa Clara prediction

38%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.1% chance
27%
draw
36%
away win
Win probability: home 38%, draw 27%, away 36%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Estoril against Santa Clara as too close to call in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It gives Estoril a 38% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Santa Clara 36%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Estoril and 1.2 from Santa Clara, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 45% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Estoril keep a clean sheet in 30% of outcomes, Santa Clara in 29%.

Estoril are 18th in the table with 2 points from 10 games; Santa Clara are 4th with 21. In their last five league games Estoril took 0 points (LLLLL) and Santa Clara took 7 (DWLWL). This season Estoril average 1.01 expected goals (xG) for and 1.65 against per game; Santa Clara average 1.20 for and 0.95 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 3, Santa Clara won 4 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished Santa Clara 2–4 Estoril, a win for Estoril.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
11
6
2
<1
<1
1
11
13
8
3
<1
<1
2
7
8
5
2
<1
<1
3
3
3
2
<1
<1
4
<1
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Estoril goalsColumns: Santa Clara goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.6%
1–011.1%
0–110.6%
0–08.2%
2–18.1%
1–27.8%
1 or more goals
92%
2 or more goals
70%
3 or more goals
45%
4 or more goals
23%
5 or more goals
10%
Both teams score
50%

GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.25 for Estoril and 1.21 for Santa Clara.

Winning margin

Explained
Estoril by 3
4%
Estoril by 2
11%
Estoril by 1
21%
Draw
27%
Santa Clara by 3
4%
Santa Clara by 2
10%
Santa Clara by 1
21%

Each team's goals

Explained
Estoril expected goals1.25
Santa Clara expected goals1.21
Estoril keep a clean sheet30%
Santa Clara keep a clean sheet29%
Estoril win without conceding22%
Santa Clara win without conceding20%
Estoril score 2 or more36%
Santa Clara score 2 or more34%

Recent form

Estoril
L @ Porto0–4 · 31 Oct
L v Moreirense1–3 · 25 Oct
L @ Academico Viseu1–2 · 10 Oct
L v Casa Pia1–2 · 20 Sep
L @ Sp Braga0–1 · 14 Sep
Santa Clara
L v Gil Vicente1–2 · 8 Nov
W @ Maritimo2–0 · 1 Nov
L v Benfica1–2 · 26 Oct
W @ Casa Pia1–0 · 10 Oct
D v Sp Braga0–0 · 20 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 3, Santa Clara won 4 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished Santa Clara 2–4 Estoril, a win for Estoril.

Santa Clara 2–4 Estoril31 Jan 2026
Estoril 0–1 Santa Clara6 Sep 2025
Santa Clara 2–3 Estoril18 Jan 2025
Estoril 1–4 Santa Clara11 Aug 2024
Estoril 3–0 Santa Clara30 Apr 2023
Santa Clara 3–1 Estoril14 Nov 2022

Season averages per game

ESTCD
0.50
Goals
1.45
1.90
Conceded
0.73
1.01
xG
1.20
1.65
xG against
0.95
13.7
Shots
12.6
4.7
On target
3.5
4.5
Corners
3.5
2.20
Yellow cards
3.09
10%
Clean sheets
55%
50%
Both score
46%
50%
3+ goals
46%

Questions and answers

Who will win Estoril vs Santa Clara?

GossipBall gives Estoril a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Santa Clara 36%. GossipBall sees Estoril against Santa Clara as too close to call.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Santa Clara?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Estoril, 1.2 for Santa Clara). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Estoril and Santa Clara score.

Will there be three or more goals in Estoril vs Santa Clara?

There is a 45% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.3 for Estoril, 1.2 for Santa Clara).

When is Estoril vs Santa Clara?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 3, Santa Clara won 4 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished Santa Clara 2–4 Estoril, a win for Estoril.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC