Primeira LigaMatchday 13Sunday 6 December 2026 ·

Estoril vs Vitória SC prediction

37%
home win
predicted score
1–2
8.4% chance
24%
draw
38%
away win
Win probability: home 37%, draw 24%, away 38%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Estoril against Vitória SC as too close to call in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It gives Estoril a 37% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Vitória SC 38%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Estoril and 1.4 from Vitória SC, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 54% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Estoril keep a clean sheet in 24% of outcomes, Vitória SC in 24%.

Estoril are 18th in the table with 2 points from 10 games; Vitória SC are 14th with 9. In their last five league games Estoril took 0 points (LLLLL) and Vitória SC took 5 (DLWDL). This season Estoril average 1.01 expected goals (xG) for and 1.65 against per game; Vitória SC average 1.43 for and 1.00 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 2, Vitória SC won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Estoril 4–2 Vitória SC, a win for Estoril.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
9
6
3
1
<1
1
8
11
8
4
1
<1
2
6
8
6
3
1
<1
3
3
4
3
1
<1
<1
4
<1
1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Estoril goalsColumns: Vitória SC goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–111.4%
0–18.6%
1–08.5%
1–28.4%
2–18.3%
0–26.0%
1 or more goals
95%
2 or more goals
77%
3 or more goals
54%
4 or more goals
32%
5 or more goals
16%
Both teams score
57%

GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.41 for Estoril and 1.44 for Vitória SC.

Winning margin

Explained
Estoril by 3
4%
Estoril by 2
11%
Estoril by 1
20%
Draw
24%
Vitória SC by 3
5%
Vitória SC by 2
11%
Vitória SC by 1
20%

Each team's goals

Explained
Estoril expected goals1.41
Vitória SC expected goals1.44
Estoril keep a clean sheet24%
Vitória SC keep a clean sheet24%
Estoril win without conceding18%
Vitória SC win without conceding19%
Estoril score 2 or more41%
Vitória SC score 2 or more42%

Recent form

Estoril
L @ Porto0–4 · 31 Oct
L v Moreirense1–3 · 25 Oct
L @ Academico Viseu1–2 · 10 Oct
L v Casa Pia1–2 · 20 Sep
L @ Sp Braga0–1 · 14 Sep
Vitória SC
L v Porto1–2 · 8 Nov
D @ Gil Vicente0–0 · 2 Nov
W v Maritimo5–0 · 23 Oct
L @ Benfica0–2 · 11 Oct
D v Moreirense1–1 · 20 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 2, Vitória SC won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Estoril 4–2 Vitória SC, a win for Estoril.

Estoril 4–2 Vitória SC24 Jan 2026
Vitória SC 3–2 Estoril16 Aug 2025
Estoril 1–0 Vitória SC26 Jan 2025
Vitória SC 1–0 Estoril18 Aug 2024
Estoril 1–3 Vitória SC2 Mar 2024
Vitória SC 3–2 Estoril1 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

ESTGUI
0.50
Goals
1.00
1.90
Conceded
1.09
1.01
xG
1.43
1.65
xG against
1.00
13.7
Shots
16.8
4.7
On target
4.5
4.5
Corners
5.4
2.20
Yellow cards
2.55
10%
Clean sheets
36%
50%
Both score
36%
50%
3+ goals
36%

Questions and answers

Who will win Estoril vs Vitória SC?

GossipBall gives Estoril a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vitória SC 38%. GossipBall sees Estoril against Vitória SC as too close to call.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Vitória SC?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.4 for Estoril, 1.4 for Vitória SC). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Vitória SC?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Estoril and Vitória SC score.

Will there be three or more goals in Estoril vs Vitória SC?

There is a 54% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.4 for Estoril, 1.4 for Vitória SC).

When is Estoril vs Vitória SC?

Kick-off is Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vitória SC?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Estoril won 2, Vitória SC won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Estoril 4–2 Vitória SC, a win for Estoril.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC