Primeira LigaMatchday 13Saturday 5 December 2026 ·

Santa Clara vs Porto prediction

17%
home win
predicted score
0–2
12.9% chance
26%
draw
57%
away win
Win probability: home 17%, draw 26%, away 57%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Porto favourites to beat Santa Clara away from home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It gives Santa Clara a 17% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Porto 57%.

GossipBall expects 0.6 goals from Santa Clara and 1.4 from Porto, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 35% chance of three or more goals and a 36% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 0–2. Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 24% of outcomes, Porto in 52%.

Santa Clara are 4th in the table with 21 points from 11 games; Porto are 1st with 33. In their last five league games Santa Clara took 7 points (DWLWL) and Porto took 15 (WWWWW). This season Santa Clara average 1.20 expected goals (xG) for and 0.95 against per game; Porto average 2.16 for and 0.79 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Santa Clara won 0, Porto won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished Porto 1–0 Santa Clara, a win for Porto.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
12
18
13
6
2
<1
1
8
11
8
4
1
<1
2
3
4
3
1
<1
<1
3
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
4
<1
5
Rows: Santa Clara goalsColumns: Porto goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 0–1 (18%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

0–118.1%
0–212.9%
0–012.0%
1–111.2%
1–28.3%
1–08.3%
1 or more goals
88%
2 or more goals
62%
3 or more goals
35%
4 or more goals
16%
5 or more goals
6%
Both teams score
36%

GossipBall expects 2.1 goals in total: 0.65 for Santa Clara and 1.45 for Porto.

Winning margin

Explained
Santa Clara by 3
1%
Santa Clara by 2
4%
Santa Clara by 1
13%
Draw
26%
Porto by 3
8%
Porto by 2
17%
Porto by 1
28%

Each team's goals

Explained
Santa Clara expected goals0.65
Porto expected goals1.45
Santa Clara keep a clean sheet24%
Porto keep a clean sheet52%
Santa Clara win without conceding12%
Porto win without conceding40%
Santa Clara score 2 or more14%
Porto score 2 or more42%

Recent form

Santa Clara
L v Gil Vicente1–2 · 8 Nov
W @ Maritimo2–0 · 1 Nov
L v Benfica1–2 · 26 Oct
W @ Casa Pia1–0 · 10 Oct
D v Sp Braga0–0 · 20 Sep
Porto
W @ Vitória SC2–1 · 8 Nov
W v Estoril4–0 · 31 Oct
W @ Gil Vicente1–0 · 24 Oct
W @ Maritimo2–1 · 10 Oct
W v Benfica3–1 · 20 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Santa Clara won 0, Porto won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished Porto 1–0 Santa Clara, a win for Porto.

Porto 1–0 Santa Clara16 May 2026
Santa Clara 0–1 Porto4 Jan 2026
Porto 1–1 Santa Clara26 Jan 2025
Santa Clara 0–2 Porto16 Aug 2024
Porto 2–1 Santa Clara15 Apr 2023
Santa Clara 1–1 Porto29 Oct 2022

Season averages per game

CD FCP
1.45
Goals
2.45
0.73
Conceded
0.45
1.20
xG
2.16
0.95
xG against
0.79
12.6
Shots
16.3
3.5
On target
6.5
3.5
Corners
6.8
3.09
Yellow cards
1.27
55%
Clean sheets
55%
46%
Both score
46%
46%
3+ goals
64%

Questions and answers

Who will win Santa Clara vs Porto?

GossipBall gives Santa Clara a 17% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Porto 57%. GossipBall makes Porto favourites to beat Santa Clara away from home.

What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Porto?

GossipBall's predicted score is 0–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (0.6 for Santa Clara, 1.4 for Porto). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 0–1 (18%), 0–2 (13%), 0–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Porto?

GossipBall gives a 36% chance that both Santa Clara and Porto score.

Will there be three or more goals in Santa Clara vs Porto?

There is a 35% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.1 goals in total (0.6 for Santa Clara, 1.4 for Porto).

When is Santa Clara vs Porto?

Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Porto?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Santa Clara won 0, Porto won 6 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished Porto 1–0 Santa Clara, a win for Porto.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC