Serie AMatchday 12Saturday 21 November 2026 ·

Lazio vs Lecce prediction

59%
home win
predicted score
2–0
12.9% chance
25%
draw
16%
away win
Win probability: home 59%, draw 25%, away 16%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lazio favourites to beat Lecce at home in Serie A on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC. It gives Lazio a 59% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Lecce 16%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Lazio and 0.7 from Lecce, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 41% chance of three or more goals and a 41% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–0. Lazio keep a clean sheet in 50% of outcomes, Lecce in 20%.

Lazio are 1st in the table with 28 points from 10 games; Lecce are 14th with 9. In their last five league games Lazio took 15 points (WWWWW) and Lecce took 3 (LWLLL). This season Lazio average 1.64 expected goals (xG) for and 1.13 against per game; Lecce average 1.36 for and 1.93 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2023, Lazio won 3, Lecce won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
7
2
<1
<1
1
16
11
4
<1
<1
2
13
9
3
<1
<1
3
7
5
2
<1
4
3
2
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Lazio goalsColumns: Lecce goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (16%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–015.7%
2–012.9%
1–111.4%
0–010.1%
2–19.0%
3–06.9%
1 or more goals
90%
2 or more goals
68%
3 or more goals
41%
4 or more goals
20%
5 or more goals
9%
Both teams score
41%

GossipBall expects 2.3 goals in total: 1.62 for Lazio and 0.70 for Lecce.

Winning margin

Explained
Lazio by 3
9%
Lazio by 2
18%
Lazio by 1
27%
Draw
25%
Lecce by 3
1%
Lecce by 2
3%
Lecce by 1
11%

Each team's goals

Explained
Lazio expected goals1.62
Lecce expected goals0.70
Lazio keep a clean sheet50%
Lecce keep a clean sheet20%
Lazio win without conceding39%
Lecce win without conceding10%
Lazio score 2 or more48%
Lecce score 2 or more16%

Recent form

Lazio
W v Cagliari2–1 · 1 Nov
W @ Sassuolo6–2 · 27 Oct
W v Parma2–1 · 24 Oct
W @ Juventus3–0 · 18 Oct
W v Monza3–1 · 11 Oct
Lecce
L v Genoa1–2 · 1 Nov
L @ Frosinone1–5 · 29 Oct
L v Juventus0–2 · 25 Oct
W @ Udinese3–0 · 18 Oct
L v Bologna1–2 · 11 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 8 league meetings since 2023, Lazio won 3, Lecce won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

Lecce 0–0 Lazio24 Jan 2026
Lazio 2–0 Lecce23 Nov 2025
Lazio 0–1 Lecce25 May 2025
Lecce 1–2 Lazio21 Dec 2024
Lazio 1–0 Lecce14 Jan 2024
Lecce 2–1 Lazio20 Aug 2023

Season averages per game

LAZUSL
2.40
Goals
1.10
0.80
Conceded
2.10
1.64
xG
1.36
1.13
xG against
1.93
13.8
Shots
12.7
4.6
On target
5.0
4.7
Corners
4.5
1.60
Yellow cards
1.90
40%
Clean sheets
20%
60%
Both score
40%
70%
3+ goals
70%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lazio vs Lecce?

GossipBall gives Lazio a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lecce 16%. GossipBall makes Lazio favourites to beat Lecce at home.

What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Lecce?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–0, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.6 for Lazio, 0.7 for Lecce). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lazio vs Lecce?

GossipBall gives a 41% chance that both Lazio and Lecce score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lazio vs Lecce?

There is a 41% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.3 goals in total (1.6 for Lazio, 0.7 for Lecce).

When is Lazio vs Lecce?

Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Lecce?

In 8 league meetings since 2023, Lazio won 3, Lecce won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC