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Napoli vs Lecce prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Napoli clear favourites to beat Lecce at home in Serie A on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Napoli a 67% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Lecce 11%.
GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Napoli and 0.6 from Lecce, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 44% chance of three or more goals and a 39% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–0. Napoli keep a clean sheet in 54% of outcomes, Lecce in 16%.
Napoli are 10th in the table with 15 points from 11 games; Lecce are 14th with 10. In their last five league games Napoli took 5 points (LDWLD) and Lecce took 4 (WLLLD). This season Napoli average 1.79 expected goals (xG) for and 1.24 against per game; Lecce average 1.26 for and 1.84 against.
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Napoli won 6, Lecce won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, finished Napoli 2–1 Lecce, a win for Napoli.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (16%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total: 1.84 for Napoli and 0.61 for Lecce.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 8 league meetings since 2022, Napoli won 6, Lecce won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, finished Napoli 2–1 Lecce, a win for Napoli.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Napoli vs Lecce?
GossipBall gives Napoli a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lecce 11%. GossipBall makes Napoli clear favourites to beat Lecce at home.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Lecce?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–0, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.8 for Napoli, 0.6 for Lecce). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (15%), 1–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Lecce?
GossipBall gives a 39% chance that both Napoli and Lecce score.
Will there be three or more goals in Napoli vs Lecce?
There is a 44% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.8 for Napoli, 0.6 for Lecce).
When is Napoli vs Lecce?
Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Lecce?
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Napoli won 6, Lecce won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, finished Napoli 2–1 Lecce, a win for Napoli.