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Hamburg vs Bayern Munich prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Bayern Munich clear favourites to beat Hamburg away from home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives Hamburg a 8% chance of winning, puts the draw at 14% and gives Bayern Munich 78%.
GossipBall expects 0.9 goals from Hamburg and 3.0 from Bayern Munich, so goals look likely: there is a 75% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–3. Hamburg keep a clean sheet in 5% of outcomes, Bayern Munich in 39%.
Hamburg are 11th in the table with 12 points from 9 games; Bayern Munich are 1st with 21. In their last five league games Hamburg took 9 points (WWLLW) and Bayern Munich took 11 (DWWDW). This season Hamburg average 1.14 expected goals (xG) for and 1.86 against per game; Bayern Munich average 3.46 for and 0.86 against.
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 0, Bayern Munich won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, was a 2–2 draw.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 0–2 (9%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total: 0.94 for Hamburg and 2.98 for Bayern Munich.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 0, Bayern Munich won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, was a 2–2 draw.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Hamburg vs Bayern Munich?
GossipBall gives Hamburg a 8% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bayern Munich 78%. GossipBall makes Bayern Munich clear favourites to beat Hamburg away from home.
What is the predicted score for Hamburg vs Bayern Munich?
GossipBall's predicted score is 1–3, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (0.9 for Hamburg, 3.0 for Bayern Munich). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 0–2 (9%), 0–3 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Will both teams score in Hamburg vs Bayern Munich?
GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Hamburg and Bayern Munich score.
Will there be three or more goals in Hamburg vs Bayern Munich?
There is a 75% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total (0.9 for Hamburg, 3.0 for Bayern Munich).
When is Hamburg vs Bayern Munich?
Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburg and Bayern Munich?
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 0, Bayern Munich won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, was a 2–2 draw.