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Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Arsenal favourites to beat Real Madrid at home in the Champions League on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Arsenal a 59% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Real Madrid 19%.
GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from Arsenal and 1.0 from Real Madrid, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 57% chance of three or more goals and a 55% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 36% of outcomes, Real Madrid in 14%.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.94 for Arsenal and 1.01 for Real Madrid.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedQuestions and answers
Who will win Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
GossipBall gives Arsenal a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 19%. GossipBall makes Arsenal favourites to beat Real Madrid at home.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.9 for Arsenal, 1.0 for Real Madrid). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
GossipBall gives a 55% chance that both Arsenal and Real Madrid score.
Will there be three or more goals in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
There is a 57% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.9 for Arsenal, 1.0 for Real Madrid).
When is Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
Kick-off is Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.