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Champions LeagueMatchday 6Wednesday 9 December 2026 ·

Liverpool vs Porto prediction

Liverpool
62%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.8% chance
21%
draw
Porto
18%
away win
Win probability: home 62%, draw 21%, away 18%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Liverpool clear favourites to beat Porto at home in the Champions League on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Liverpool a 62% chance of winning, puts the draw at 21% and gives Porto 18%.

GossipBall expects 2.2 goals from Liverpool and 1.1 from Porto, so goals look likely: there is a 64% chance of three or more goals and a 60% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 33% of outcomes, Porto in 11%.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
4
2
<1
<1
1
8
9
5
2
<1
<1
2
9
10
5
2
<1
<1
3
6
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4
1
<1
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2
<1
<1
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2
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<1
<1
<1
Rows: Liverpool goalsColumns: Porto goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how).

Most common scorelines

2–19.8%
1–19.3%
2–08.8%
1–07.6%
3–17.2%
3–06.5%

Goals

Explained
1 or more goals
96%
2 or more goals
85%
3 or more goals
64%
4 or more goals
42%
5 or more goals
24%
Both teams score
60%

GossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total: 2.20 for Liverpool and 1.11 for Porto.

Winning margin

Explained
Liverpool by 3
12%
Liverpool by 2
19%
Liverpool by 1
22%
Draw
21%
Porto by 3
1%
Porto by 2
5%
Porto by 1
11%

Each team's goals

Explained
Liverpool expected goals2.20
Porto expected goals1.11
Liverpool keep a clean sheet33%
Porto keep a clean sheet11%
Liverpool win without conceding29%
Porto win without conceding7%
Liverpool score 2 or more65%
Porto score 2 or more30%

Questions and answers

Who will win Liverpool vs Porto?

GossipBall gives Liverpool a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Porto 18%. GossipBall makes Liverpool clear favourites to beat Porto at home.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Porto?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.2 for Liverpool, 1.1 for Porto). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Porto?

GossipBall gives a 60% chance that both Liverpool and Porto score.

Will there be three or more goals in Liverpool vs Porto?

There is a 64% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.3 goals in total (2.2 for Liverpool, 1.1 for Porto).

When is Liverpool vs Porto?

Kick-off is Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC