Champions LeagueMatchday 6Wednesday 9 December 2026 ·

PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético Madrid prediction

37%
home win
predicted score
1–3
5.2% chance
22%
draw
42%
away win
Win probability: home 37%, draw 22%, away 42%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Atlético Madrid slight favourites to beat PSV Eindhoven away from home in the Champions League on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives PSV Eindhoven a 37% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Atlético Madrid 42%.

GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 2.0 from Atlético Madrid, so goals look likely: there is a 75% chance of three or more goals and a 74% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–3. PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 13% of outcomes, Atlético Madrid in 15%.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
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Rows: PSV Eindhoven goalsColumns: Atlético Madrid goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (8%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–17.9%
1–27.6%
2–27.3%
2–17.2%
1–35.2%
2–35.0%
1 or more goals
98%
2 or more goals
91%
3 or more goals
75%
4 or more goals
56%
5 or more goals
36%
Both teams score
74%

GossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total: 1.91 for PSV Eindhoven and 2.04 for Atlético Madrid.

Winning margin

Explained
PSV Eindhoven by 3
6%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
11%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
17%
Draw
22%
Atlético Madrid by 3
7%
Atlético Madrid by 2
12%
Atlético Madrid by 1
18%

Each team's goals

Explained
PSV Eindhoven expected goals1.91
Atlético Madrid expected goals2.04
PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet13%
Atlético Madrid keep a clean sheet15%
PSV Eindhoven win without conceding11%
Atlético Madrid win without conceding12%
PSV Eindhoven score 2 or more57%
Atlético Madrid score 2 or more60%

Questions and answers

Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético Madrid?

GossipBall gives PSV Eindhoven a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atlético Madrid 42%. GossipBall makes Atlético Madrid slight favourites to beat PSV Eindhoven away from home.

What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético Madrid?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–3, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.9 for PSV Eindhoven, 2.0 for Atlético Madrid). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético Madrid?

GossipBall gives a 74% chance that both PSV Eindhoven and Atlético Madrid score.

Will there be three or more goals in PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético Madrid?

There is a 75% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total (1.9 for PSV Eindhoven, 2.0 for Atlético Madrid).

When is PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético Madrid?

Kick-off is Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC