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Burnley vs Birmingham prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Burnley favourites to beat Birmingham at home in the Championship on Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Burnley a 49% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Birmingham 25%.
GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Burnley and 1.0 from Birmingham, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 47% chance of three or more goals and a 51% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Burnley keep a clean sheet in 36% of outcomes, Birmingham in 21%.
Burnley are 22nd in the table with 10 points from 15 games; Birmingham are 1st with 29. In their last five league games Burnley took 2 points (LLDDL) and Birmingham took 12 (WLWWW). This season Burnley average 1.33 expected goals (xG) for and 1.75 against per game; Birmingham average 1.78 for and 1.37 against.
In 2 league meetings since 2022, Burnley won 1, Birmingham won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 27 Dec 2022, finished Burnley 3–0 Birmingham, a win for Burnley.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 11 November 2026, 06:07 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.54 for Burnley and 1.03 for Birmingham.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 2 league meetings since 2022, Burnley won 1, Birmingham won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 27 Dec 2022, finished Burnley 3–0 Birmingham, a win for Burnley.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Burnley vs Birmingham?
GossipBall gives Burnley a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Birmingham 25%. GossipBall makes Burnley favourites to beat Birmingham at home.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Birmingham?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.5 for Burnley, 1.0 for Birmingham). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Birmingham?
GossipBall gives a 51% chance that both Burnley and Birmingham score.
Will there be three or more goals in Burnley vs Birmingham?
There is a 47% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.5 for Burnley, 1.0 for Birmingham).
When is Burnley vs Birmingham?
Kick-off is Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Birmingham?
In 2 league meetings since 2022, Burnley won 1, Birmingham won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 27 Dec 2022, finished Burnley 3–0 Birmingham, a win for Burnley.