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Derby vs Watford prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Derby favourites to beat Watford at home in the Championship on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Derby a 46% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Watford 27%.
GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Derby and 1.1 from Watford, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 47% chance of three or more goals and a 51% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Derby keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Watford in 23%.
Derby are 23rd in the table with 10 points from 15 games; Watford are 20th with 15. In their last five league games Derby took 4 points (LDLLW) and Watford took 7 (WLLWD). This season Derby average 1.05 expected goals (xG) for and 1.94 against per game; Watford average 0.96 for and 1.77 against.
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Derby won 0, Watford won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Watford 2–0 Derby, a win for Watford.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.48 for Derby and 1.06 for Watford.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 4 league meetings since 2024, Derby won 0, Watford won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Watford 2–0 Derby, a win for Watford.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Derby vs Watford?
GossipBall gives Derby a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Watford 27%. GossipBall makes Derby favourites to beat Watford at home.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Watford?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.5 for Derby, 1.1 for Watford). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
Will both teams score in Derby vs Watford?
GossipBall gives a 51% chance that both Derby and Watford score.
Will there be three or more goals in Derby vs Watford?
There is a 47% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.5 for Derby, 1.1 for Watford).
When is Derby vs Watford?
Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Watford?
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Derby won 0, Watford won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Watford 2–0 Derby, a win for Watford.