ChampionshipMatchday 20Wednesday 9 December 2026 ·

Lincoln vs Stoke prediction

41%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.5% chance
28%
draw
31%
away win
Win probability: home 41%, draw 28%, away 31%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lincoln slight favourites to beat Stoke at home in the Championship on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Lincoln a 41% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Stoke 31%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Lincoln and 1.1 from Stoke, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 44% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 33% of outcomes, Stoke in 27%.

Lincoln are 21st in the table with 15 points from 15 games; Stoke are 3rd with 29. In their last five league games Lincoln took 4 points (DWLLL) and Stoke took 13 (WDWWW). This season Lincoln average 1.32 expected goals (xG) for and 1.46 against per game; Stoke average 1.02 for and 1.45 against.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
9
5
2
<1
<1
1
11
13
7
3
<1
<1
2
8
8
5
2
<1
<1
3
3
4
2
<1
<1
4
1
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Lincoln goalsColumns: Stoke goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–113.3%
1–011.1%
0–19.4%
0–09.2%
2–18.5%
2–07.6%
1 or more goals
91%
2 or more goals
70%
3 or more goals
44%
4 or more goals
23%
5 or more goals
10%
Both teams score
50%

GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total: 1.32 for Lincoln and 1.12 for Stoke.

Winning margin

Explained
Lincoln by 3
5%
Lincoln by 2
12%
Lincoln by 1
22%
Draw
28%
Stoke by 3
3%
Stoke by 2
9%
Stoke by 1
19%

Each team's goals

Explained
Lincoln expected goals1.32
Stoke expected goals1.12
Lincoln keep a clean sheet33%
Stoke keep a clean sheet27%
Lincoln win without conceding23%
Stoke win without conceding18%
Lincoln score 2 or more38%
Stoke score 2 or more31%

Recent form

Lincoln
L @ QPR1–2 · 7 Nov
L @ Watford0–1 · 3 Nov
L v Birmingham1–3 · 31 Oct
W v Burnley4–1 · 24 Oct
D @ Millwall2–2 · 17 Oct
Stoke
W @ Portsmouth2–1 · 7 Nov
W @ Blackburn2–1 · 3 Nov
W v Preston2–0 · 31 Oct
D v Bristol City0–0 · 24 Oct
W @ Derby1–0 · 17 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

LINSTK
1.00
Goals
1.60
1.73
Conceded
1.20
1.32
xG
1.02
1.46
xG against
1.45
12.3
Shots
11.3
3.1
On target
3.6
3.5
Corners
4.5
2.20
Yellow cards
2.00
27%
Clean sheets
33%
53%
Both score
67%
60%
3+ goals
67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lincoln vs Stoke?

GossipBall gives Lincoln a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Stoke 31%. GossipBall makes Lincoln slight favourites to beat Stoke at home.

What is the predicted score for Lincoln vs Stoke?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Lincoln, 1.1 for Stoke). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Stoke?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Lincoln and Stoke score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lincoln vs Stoke?

There is a 44% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.3 for Lincoln, 1.1 for Stoke).

When is Lincoln vs Stoke?

Kick-off is Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC