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Middlesbrough vs Derby prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Middlesbrough clear favourites to beat Derby at home in the Championship on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Middlesbrough a 61% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Derby 17%.
GossipBall expects 2.0 goals from Middlesbrough and 1.0 from Derby, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 56% chance of three or more goals and a 53% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 39% of outcomes, Derby in 14%.
Middlesbrough are 2nd in the table with 29 points from 15 games; Derby are 23rd with 10. In their last five league games Middlesbrough took 8 points (DWWLD) and Derby took 4 (LDLLW). This season Middlesbrough average 2.04 expected goals (xG) for and 0.96 against per game; Derby average 1.05 for and 1.94 against.
In 6 league meetings since 2021, Middlesbrough won 3, Derby won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 1 Jan 2026, finished Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough, a win for Derby.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (10%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total: 1.96 for Middlesbrough and 0.95 for Derby.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 6 league meetings since 2021, Middlesbrough won 3, Derby won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 1 Jan 2026, finished Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough, a win for Derby.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Derby?
GossipBall gives Middlesbrough a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 17%. GossipBall makes Middlesbrough clear favourites to beat Derby at home.
What is the predicted score for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.0 for Middlesbrough, 1.0 for Derby). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
GossipBall gives a 53% chance that both Middlesbrough and Derby score.
Will there be three or more goals in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
There is a 56% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (2.0 for Middlesbrough, 1.0 for Derby).
When is Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
In 6 league meetings since 2021, Middlesbrough won 3, Derby won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 1 Jan 2026, finished Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough, a win for Derby.