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Southampton vs Derby prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Southampton clear favourites to beat Derby at home in the Championship on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Southampton a 63% chance of winning, puts the draw at 20% and gives Derby 16%.
GossipBall expects 2.2 goals from Southampton and 1.0 from Derby, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Southampton keep a clean sheet in 36% of outcomes, Derby in 11%.
Southampton are 1st in the table with 28 points from 14 games; Derby are 23rd with 7. In their last five league games Southampton took 11 points (WDWWD) and Derby took 1 (LLDLL). This season Southampton average 1.70 expected goals (xG) for and 1.34 against per game; Derby average 0.98 for and 1.95 against.
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Southampton won 1, Derby won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Southampton 2–1 Derby, a win for Southampton.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how).
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total: 2.18 for Southampton and 1.02 for Derby.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 2 league meetings since 2025, Southampton won 1, Derby won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Southampton 2–1 Derby, a win for Southampton.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Southampton vs Derby?
GossipBall gives Southampton a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Derby 16%. GossipBall makes Southampton clear favourites to beat Derby at home.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Derby?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.2 for Southampton, 1.0 for Derby). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (9%).
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Derby?
GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Southampton and Derby score.
Will there be three or more goals in Southampton vs Derby?
There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (2.2 for Southampton, 1.0 for Derby).
When is Southampton vs Derby?
Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Derby?
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Southampton won 1, Derby won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Southampton 2–1 Derby, a win for Southampton.