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Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Southampton favourites to beat Middlesbrough at home in the Championship on Friday 27 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Southampton a 46% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Middlesbrough 30%.
GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Southampton and 1.4 from Middlesbrough, so goals look likely: there is a 60% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Southampton keep a clean sheet in 26% of outcomes, Middlesbrough in 18%.
Southampton are 4th in the table with 28 points from 15 games; Middlesbrough are 2nd with 29. In their last five league games Southampton took 8 points (DWWDL) and Middlesbrough took 8 (DWWLD). This season Southampton average 1.72 expected goals (xG) for and 1.34 against per game; Middlesbrough average 2.04 for and 0.96 against.
In 4 league meetings since 2023, Southampton won 0, Middlesbrough won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Jan 2026, finished Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton, a win for Middlesbrough.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total: 1.73 for Southampton and 1.36 for Middlesbrough.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 4 league meetings since 2023, Southampton won 0, Middlesbrough won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Jan 2026, finished Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton, a win for Middlesbrough.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
GossipBall gives Southampton a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Middlesbrough 30%. GossipBall makes Southampton favourites to beat Middlesbrough at home.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.7 for Southampton, 1.4 for Middlesbrough). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%).
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both Southampton and Middlesbrough score.
Will there be three or more goals in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
There is a 60% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (1.7 for Southampton, 1.4 for Middlesbrough).
When is Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Kick-off is Friday 27 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Middlesbrough?
In 4 league meetings since 2023, Southampton won 0, Middlesbrough won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Jan 2026, finished Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton, a win for Middlesbrough.